Donald Trump's prospects for a Nobel Peace Prize and a Mount Rushmore-sized feat suffered two self-inflicted blows last week – one by the use of force to achieve American objectives; is the cause of the war in Ukraine.
First, Mr. Trump I repeated my ambition From his first term, he argued that the United States should acquire Greenland from Denmark. Given the strategic location of Russia and China near the Arctic Ocean There is also an intentionand that rich mineral resources Critical to America's economic and military security, making Greenland part of the United States as a nation or property is a worthy goal, as is the Louisiana Purchase from France and the Alaska Purchase from Russia. It is.
However, these vast expansions of American territory were accomplished through traditional interstate real estate transactions. Buying real estate is part of President Trump's business, but he has also threatened to use his executive powers to seize the island by force from a loyal NATO ally. Ignoring the wishes of the people of Greenland, They want complete independence from Denmark and any foreign government.
Trump has also focused on the Panama Canal, which was built by the United States under President Teddy Roosevelt and transferred to Panama by President Jimmy Carter. As with Greenland, there are considerable economic and security factors that make returning the canal to U.S. control strategically desirable. In particular, since the Panamanian government took power in 2017, China's role has increased. Toggled diplomatic recognition From Taiwan to China.
Asked if he would rule out the use of force to acquire Greenland or Panama, Trump said: answered“No. I can't make any guarantees about either of those two things. I'm not going to commit to that. Maybe I'll have to do something.”
If President Trump persists in his presidency with a policy of considering the use of force to achieve strategic goals, he will emulate the approach of the world's leading powers he leads. I've been dreaming of it for a long time. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping know how to get what they want, and are willing to use force to get it. They will clearly be happy to see President Trump legitimize their methods, which dictators and invaders have practiced for centuries, and which may make justice possible.
Even if President Trump's imperialistic-sounding rhetoric is simply a ploy to gain influence in the final negotiation process, it is already contradictory. Article 1 The United Nations Charter states, “All member states shall refrain from the threat or use of force in their international relations.'' President Putin apparently believed that if he threatened Ukraine, it would surrender. President Xi invoked the 2005 anti-secession law and warned Taiwan and the United States that China would take advantage of it. “Unpeaceful” It means occupying Taiwan if “peaceful” measures fail.
President Trump has effectively told Greenland and Panama that he is imposing his own Chinese-style anti-independence laws. President Trump often recommends warning aggressive powers that the United States acts in accordance with the principles of United Nations and customary international law, rather than wielding American military power against friends and allies in violation of international law. It will be done. right of collective self-defense.
China is already poised to take military action against Taiwan when it sees an opportune moment, when the United States is least likely to defend Taiwan. And Trump's position on Ukraine will affect the fate of Europe and have major implications for the credibility of the United States (and by extension, global security in general). It will be watched not only in Moscow but also in Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran.
But what President Trump can truly understand about Ukraine is how and why Ukraine got into its current predicament: why President Putin decided to invade Ukraine, first in 2014 and then in 2022. Only if you understand correctly what you did.
President Trump continues to make statements about the causes of the conflict that do not reflect the historical record. he told a journalist Last week: “Long before Putin said, 'There's no way we're going to get NATO involved in Ukraine,' Russia has been a big part of the problem for years. No, it's carved in stone. As if somewhere. [President] “No, they should be allowed to join NATO,” Biden said. Well, Russia has someone right around the corner. I could understand their feelings about that. ”
Trump's explanation omits several important facts.
After the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States and Europe persuaded Ukraine Giving up Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for strong security promises from Washington, Moscow and London. In America in 2008, convinced NATO Ultimately, he announced his intention to welcome Georgia and Ukraine as member states. Russia invaded Georgia later that year, but the Bush administration and Europe did nothing.
6 years after Barack Obama promised Putin said after his re-election in 2012 that Russia would “become more flexible” after it occupied eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Neither the Obama administration nor the first Trump administration did anything to persuade President Putin to reverse the illegal land grabs. The UN Charter's prohibition on the “threat or use of force” means that wars are the responsibility of the aggressor, not the victim, as President Trump's comments suggest.
Mr. Xi is another great power engaged in expansionism in the name of restoring the lost honor of the motherland. Chinese Communist Party leaders have successfully used the tactic in six locations in Asia without encountering resistance from the international community. North Korea, its ally and protectorate, also attempted this when it invaded South Korea in 1950, but was thwarted by the United Nations coalition led by the United States. Allowed to remain in power (unlike the invading regimes that waged World War II against Western civilization), this country has continued to threaten South Korea, Japan, and even the United States. at least 12,000 troops and massive military aid to support Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
History will reward Mr. Trump for halting the downward spiral in international relations, but that will not be achieved by following the lead of a dictator, but by strength and clarity of vision. President Trump may understand that “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery,” but the rest of that quote That is, “…mediocrity can lead to greatness.”
Joseph Bosco served as the Secretary of Defense's Director of China Affairs from 2005 to 2006 and Director of the Asia-Pacific Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief from 2009 to 2010. He is an adjunct fellow at the Institute for Korean American Studies and a member of the Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute and the Advisory Board of the Vandenberg Coalition..
