The Republican gubernatorial primary in Florida is just under a year away, set for August 18, 2026, and Representative Byron Donald (R-FL) is clearly leading the field with backing from former President Donald Trump.
Donald appears to hold significant power in this primary election and has established a notable name on the national stage. Trump’s endorsement has consistently emerged as a key influence in Republican primaries since his entry into politics. For instance, during mid-2022, candidates backed by Trump garnered an impressive record of 209 wins against just 17 losses in the Republican primary by August 18, 2022.
According to an Axios article from July 1, Donald has amassed over $22 million in funding, which is quite substantial in just a couple of months, indicating strong ongoing support.
In a hypothetical matchup featuring four potential candidates—including Florida’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis—Donald led by eight points in a St. Pete Polls survey conducted from July 8 to 10. He captured 35% of respondents compared to DeSantis’s 27%, with Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson at 3% and former state legislator Paul Renner at 2%.
Interestingly, Governor DeSantis mentioned last week that while he wouldn’t pin his hopes on his wife as a candidate, he thought Lt. Col. Jay Collins (R-FL) could be a compelling choice. However, he stopped short of offering any official endorsement.
In a scenario where Casey DeSantis was replaced by Collins in a St. Pete Polls survey, Donald’s support surged to 44%, leaving Collins with just 2%. In that same hypothetical, Simpson had 4% and Renner came in with 3%. If Collins manages to secure Governor DeSantis’s endorsement and faces Donald in a head-to-head scenario, Collins would only reach 10%, while Donald would comfortably stand at 57%, with 34% remaining undecided.
The poll sampled 831 prominent Florida Republican voters, with a margin of error of ±3.4%.
Clearly, Donald is already in a favorable position, and Trump’s endorsement strengthens that hold. Interestingly, over 60% of Republicans in two polls conducted by James Madison University in April and May indicated they would be more inclined to support candidates endorsed by Trump, although Casey DeSantis had a slight edge over Donald in those studies.
In a May poll, half of Republican respondents were unaware that Trump had lent his critical support to Donald. Once they were informed, 44% of main Republican respondents expressed support for Donald, while 25% leaned toward DeSantis.
Another poll from the University of Florida showed that Donald had a 15-point lead over DeSantis among those who participated in the 2024 Republican primary. This survey included 797 registered Republicans from July 14-22, but the Tallahassee Democrats did not provide a margin of error.
