Few players had as long an offseason as C.J. Stroud, the quarterback for the Houston Texans.
Even though the Texans won a playoff game for the third year in a row, many felt the way their quarterback performed in the postseason might make trading the former second overall pick a topic worth considering. During the last two playoff games of the 2025 season, Stroud managed to throw two touchdowns but also racked up five interceptions and fumbled the ball five times. Specifically, his four interceptions against the New England Patriots were critical mistakes that led to another early exit, leaving Houston out of the playoffs for the third consecutive year.
This led to several months of re-evaluation. Stroud was compared unfavorably to players like Landry Jones and Matt Barkley, even though he had a very decent 2025 season overall. Among the 45 quarterbacks who played at least 100 snaps, he ranked 10th in expected points added (EPA) per play, according to Sumer Sports—better than Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams, and even Lamar Jackson. He also placed 11th in DVOA, surpassing names like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Despite sitting out three games, he surpassed 3,000 passing yards, and his trajectory suggested he would have nearly reached 3,700 yards, which would have put him ahead of both Mahomes and Allen in that category as well.
This isn’t to imply Stroud is better than the two quarterbacks widely regarded as the top in the game. Rather, it shows that those who labeled him as expendable might have been too hasty, letting a couple of poor performances overshadow what was an overall solid showing in 2025.
Now, looking at 2026: after the Texans began last season with an 0-3 record, they one-upped themselves this time around by starting 0-4. Yet, amid all that, their quarterback was excelling. Stroud completed close to 70% of his passes during this stretch, ranking sixth in the NFL in passing yards and throwing five touchdowns without any interceptions. In defeats against the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys, Stroud even managed to give Houston a lead in the fourth quarter, scoring over 30 points in both games—something that should have sufficed against a defense many consider the best in the league. Unfortunately, both Josh Allen and Dak Prescott effectively navigated Houston’s secondary, with CeeDee Lamb achieving 17 receptions and a game-winning touchdown in the latter matchup.
The Texans finally secured their first win in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans, setting the stage for a Week 6 encounter in London against the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, who were 4-1 at the time. Again, Stroud delivered, completing 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards, with three touchdowns and his first interception of the season. He would bounce back from that interception, leading Houston into field goal range on their final drive to set up a winning kick from Ka’imi Fairbairn.
Having seemingly dug themselves into a deep hole, the Texans have managed to claw their way back. While many expected the defense to elevate the team to the top, it has actually been their under-appreciated quarterback who has spearheaded their resurgence. Six weeks in, Stroud is tied with Mahomes for the seventh-highest EPA per play (minimum 100 snaps), and his 20 impactful plays are second only to Josh Allen and Jordan Love, both with 21.
It seems too many people were too quick to write off Stroud in Houston. After digging their own grave, it’s been their so-called inadequate quarterback who has breathed new life into the team.
Now, shifting gears, let’s talk about the Los Angeles Rams. They’ve assembled a roster full of potential Hall of Famers on both sides of the ball, yet they find themselves at 2-4, sitting last in the NFC West after six weeks. What’s the issue? Well, their special teams play has been abysmal. They’ve attempted just ten field goals this season, missing four—including a crucial potential game-winner against the Bills that got blocked. And even without the block, the kick’s trajectory looked destined to miss left. Following this, they released kicker Harrison Mevis and signed Blake Grupe, who then tore his ACL during his first attempt at making a tackle on the ensuing kickoff. This resulted in the Rams foregoing kicking field goals or extra points until their final drive, when they called in punter Ethan Evans for the extra point (which he made). Evans also kicked to the end zone for a touchback, only to set the Cardinals up at the 35-yard line. Not long after, a few plays and an unnecessary roughness penalty led to Chad Ryland’s game-winning field goal opportunity.
Compounding their kicking issues, the Rams rank 31st in net punt yards and are allowing the fourth-most yards per kick return. Leading 16-0 in the third quarter, Evans punted the ball to the Broncos’ 30-yard line, which got returned nearly 30 yards to the Rams’ 42—resulting in a meager net of just 29 yards. Denver capitalized on the short field, scoring their first points of the game. Add to this the fact that Ray Davis nearly returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown, setting up an easy score for the Bills.
And, unfortunately for them, this isn’t a new trend. They previously lost to the Eagles due to a blocked field goal last season, and a punt return by Rashid Shaheed against the Seahawks contributed to their 16-point comeback win, which ultimately gave Seattle the number one seed in the conference.
However, it shouldn’t be assumed that special teams are solely to blame for the Rams’ struggles—the offense has also faltered during crucial moments. Even with poor punt coverage against the Broncos, a careless pick-six thrown by Stafford and the defense’s failure to contain Bo Nix cost them the game. Sure, the pass interference penalty that overturned what appeared to be a game-sealing interception was questionable, and the NFL acknowledged that, but they shouldn’t have been in that position to begin with. In overtime against the Bills, the Rams had moved the ball effectively. Yet, on a pivotal 3rd-and-5, head coach Sean McVay opted for a run that went nowhere after a swing pass was stopped short. This play led to the infamous miss by Mevis. Similarly, when facing the Cardinals, the decision to call a screen pass on 3rd-and-8 encapsulated their offensive struggles. With the Cardinals being the league’s worst defense in terms of points allowed, the high-powered Rams could only manage 16 points. Now, with Davante Adams sidelined for 6-10 weeks with a hamstring injury, and despite Myles Garrett’s return being a big boost, the team can no longer excuse their issues as just early-season growing pains. With almost two months gone, their problems remain: closing out games and making wise play-calls are still concerns. If the head coach can’t make the right decisions in clutch moments to set his team up for success, then player talent won’t matter much, putting McVay under the microscope for the remainder of the season.
On to the NFL trade landscape: the deadline is Tuesday, November 10. Now that we have a clearer view of teams separating themselves from the rest, it opens doors for trade talks.
First off, let’s discuss the Colts and running back Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis just let go of their general manager, Chris Ballard, after a 2-4 start, including a loss to the winless Titans. Even though the AFC South isn’t entirely out of reach—just two games behind the Jaguars—upcoming matchups could easily be challenging. They’ll face the undefeated Vikings in Week 7 and then the Jaguars in Week 8. If they slide to 2-6, it makes all the sense in the world to consider trading Taylor. The Broncos could be an attractive landing spot, as they certainly need something to reinforce their offense. Given their lackluster passing game, acquiring Taylor to step up their ground attack could provide Denver with a much-needed identity.
Staying within the Colts, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is another player to watch. He expressed his frustration after the loss to Tennessee and is among the better defensive linemen available. Any playoff-bound team looking to bolster their defense should inquire about what it would take to acquire the former All-Pro.
In the same division, Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t see any action in the second half against the Texans and hasn’t caught a pass in his last two games. It’s clear he’s fallen out of favor, with Travis Hunter getting more opportunities and Josh Cameron seemingly taking third place behind Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Once a Pro Bowler with nearly 1,300 receiving yards as a rookie, Thomas’s numbers dropped due to injuries in 2025, and now, with other talent emerging, he appears to be losing ground. A fresh start with a team in need of offensive weapons—like the Steelers, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, or 49ers—would be ideal, especially for San Francisco, which often faces receiver injuries.
Speaking of receivers, Stefon Diggs is another name to keep an eye on. The Commanders are struggling, sitting at 1-4-1, and head coach Dan Quinn might be feeling the heat. The same teams interested in Thomas could also reach out about Diggs.
Now, let’s shift our focus to the North divisions, both NFC and AFC. To everyone’s surprise, all eight teams in these divisions have a record above .500. The initial shock comes from the Vikings, as they stand unbeaten at 5-0, while the Packers have bounced back from an embarrassing home-opening fluke against the Falcons, now sitting at 4-2. The Bears managed to go 2-1 without Caleb Williams, and he returned to throw for 300 yards, bringing them to a respectable 4-2 as well. Finally, the Lions sit at 3-2, coming off their bye after a whopping 45-point game against the Cardinals.
On the AFC side, yes, you read that right—the Cleveland Browns are in first place at 4-2, with two wins against divisional rivals. The Steelers are also a surprising 4-2 after pulling off a dramatic comeback win over the Buccaneers. Aaron Rodgers has quietly positioned himself second in the NFL for touchdown passes while the defense has been stingy, allowing just two touchdowns over the last two games. The Ravens, having lost their recent contest to the Browns, mark the last of the 4-2 teams in the division. Meanwhile, the Bengals find themselves at the bottom of the table, but with a 3-2 record, they’re just a half-game behind, and Joe Burrow is off to a hot start, already tallying 11 touchdown passes in five games.
It’s almost a given that some of these teams will struggle to maintain their current form, and it might even be both division leaders. While the Vikings and Browns boast strong defenses, their offenses are the two weakest among the eight teams. Fittingly, both have the same EPA per play, sitting at -0.14, with Minnesota slightly edging Cleveland in success rates. Since Week 2, both sides rank among the top three defenses in terms of success rates, and they also lead in defensive EPA per play. Despite being pleasant surprises thus far, it’s hard to assert that the Browns and Vikings can keep winning if their offenses can’t meet the demands of a lengthy 17-game season.
Now, let’s touch on a key play that could be viewed as the turning point for the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the fourth quarter and overtime, there were multiple plays that contributed to the Steelers achieving their largest comeback since 1992. You could point to Jamel Dean’s interception of Jalon Daniels leading to a go-ahead field goal, or Jalen Ramsey’s game-sealing sack, but one particular 3rd-and-long completion stands out.
The Steelers lost the overtime coin toss, and with the Buccaneers deferring, it meant that if Pittsburgh couldn’t score, the Bucs would only need a field goal to win. It seemed that Tampa Bay would easily overpower the Steelers’ offense, forcing them into a 3rd-and-13. However, as pressure mounted, Aaron Rodgers threw a pass to DK Metcalf over the middle. Metcalf fought to catch the ball while evading a defender, securing the 16-yard completion for a first down. He would go on to catch two more passes during the drive before Germie Bernard wrapped up the game-winning touchdown, leading the Steelers from a 16-3 deficit to a 26-19 victory.
Looking ahead, I’ll put money down that three coaches will be out of their jobs before the trade deadline—Dan Quinn, Todd Bowles, and Shane Steichen. As previously mentioned, it’s looking dire for Quinn, who might be packing his office now. Steichen isn’t far behind after the loss to Tennessee. The Bucs should have parted ways with Bowles after their massive collapse last season. It was clear they hit a ceiling under his leadership, yet they only fired many offensive coaches, keeping Bowles. At 1-5 now, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s gone soon. If we’re talking about which of these jobs is most attractive, it’s probably Tampa. They have Baker Mayfield at quarterback and young talent on both sides of the ball. Washington, on the other hand, has doubts about Jayden Daniels and will probably need a new set of receivers after another injury setback for Terry McLaurin. While the Washington job is better than the Colts’ position—with no first-round picks or a long-term quarterback solution—it’s still tough.
Now, let’s talk about the Broncos as Super Bowl contenders. We all witnessed whatever that was from their offense recently; I’d hesitate to even call it a proper football game. Bo Nix did his fair share, but it’s hard to say he really ‘plays’ quarterback. Right off the bat, he throws for four yards behind the line of scrimmage, which reeks of a coaching staff that’s scared, knowing they don’t have a competent quarterback. No matter how impressive their defense is—and it truly is—having the worst starter in the league won’t lead to championship glory.
Finally, let’s revisit a moment I think deserves mention—Josh Allen’s flip pass. I could find any excuse to talk about this play; it’s one of many Allen has created over the years that will be shared with future generations. When he’s enshrined, two plays will undoubtedly be showcased: the Lake Effect lateral against the 49ers in the snow, and the recent touchdown to Keon Coleman against the Raiders. In that play, Allen avoided several defenders, including Maxx Crosby, looking like he was ready to run. Instead, just as the rush closed in, he backhanded a pass into the end zone for the touchdown. This particular play embodies who Josh Allen is as a player.
Lastly, I’ll venture this: I suspect the Seahawks won’t make it far as Super Bowl contenders. I mentioned before the season that they’d end up like the Lions last year—a team that lost a key offensive coordinator, resulting in a decline. Now, sitting at 3-3 after six games with Sam Darnold ranked second in interceptions, 29th in EPA per play, and barely managing a 60% completion rate, their offense is struggling. They sit 25th in EPA per play and can’t run the ball effectively, ranking 30th in that metric. You have to think general manager John Schneider is regretting not keeping Kenneth Walker after seeing his success in Kansas City. Like the Broncos, while the Seahawks’ defense is fantastic—second in defensive EPA per play and allowing the least passing yards per attempt—offensive missteps and turnovers limit their potential ceiling.
- Steelers will trade Joey Porter Jr: Correct
- Rams will beat Broncos handedly: Incorrect
- Lions will blowout Panthers: Incorrect
- Marvin Harrison Jr and Brian Thomas Jr will be traded: Half correct
- Jordan Love will have explosive game as Packers defeat Cowboys: Correct
I predicted Love would throw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. If only Matthew Golden and Christian Watson could catch the ball when it hits their hands, he could have had four scores. Still, I’ll take the win, moving me to a current prediction record of 2-2-1.
It’s ridiculous that the NFL continues to schedule the Saints and Steelers to play in Paris amidst the city’s civil unrest. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that a fan or protestor will rush the field during the first-ever game in Paris with a political message, whether it’s painted on their body or showcased on a sign.
