Early voting has started in California for a special election that could significantly influence the balance of power in the US Congress next year.
Voters in California are set to decide this November on a proposal that could reshape the state’s legislative districts, thrusting California into a pivotal role in the political skirmish between Republicans, led by Donald Trump, and the Democrats.
During the summer, legislators in California greenlit a temporary measure to allow voting in November. This move is seen as a way to bypass the state’s nonpartisan districting committees and return control over the Congressional map to a Congress that is predominantly Democratic. Mail-in voting commenced on Monday.
The aim here is to carve out five additional Democratic-leaning congressional districts, a response to a new map in Texas designed to secure up to five more Republican seats. Should Proposition 50 fail, it would be a tough blow for the Democrats.
The next battleground for districting
Governor Gavin Newsom, who is viewed as a key Democratic presidential contender for 2028, is a driving force behind this proposal. In a recent appeal for support, he stressed, “If we lose here, we’ll have full Republican control in the House, Senate, and White House for at least two years. If you win here, it gives us a chance to check Trump for his final two years.”
The attempt by Trump and the GOP for a significant rezoning represents their broader strategy to hold a majority in the House, which is precariously thin, as we approach the midterm elections in 2026. Ironically, the exercise of political power seems to typically face challenges.
Trump’s influence looms large as key elections approach in 2025
Trump’s political team is keen on averting a repeat of the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats regained control of the House. Just last month, Missouri joined Texas as another Republican-led state to pass new Congressional districts in preparation for next year’s elections, potentially securing yet another Republican seat.
However, unlike in Texas and Missouri, California voters must carefully consider whether to grant legislative power over districting back to Sacramento.
Newsom has made clear the stakes, stating, “Heaven help us if we lose. This is a critical moment for the Democrats.”
Proponents and opponents of Proposition 50 have reportedly raised over $215 million by early October, funding extensive advertisements from both sides. A major opposing group labels their campaign as a bid to “stop Sacramento’s power grab.”
Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, California’s last Republican governor, has also entered the fray. During his time in office, he championed initiatives in 2008 and 2010 to transfer control of districting from politicians to an independent committee.
In an advertisement opposing Proposition 50, Schwarzenegger remarked, “That’s why they want to do it. So it’s crucial to vote no on Prop. 50.”
As ballots find their way to California voters, a panel of federal judges in Texas is dealing with a lawsuit related to a new congressional map. It remains uncertain how a decision against changes in Texas might impact California.
This summer, Newsom suggested that California could maintain its nonpartisan districting committee if other states decide to abandon their redistricting plans. Nonetheless, this language wasn’t part of the current proposal for voting.
Other states are also looking to redraw districts
Before Trump began advocating for his new district map, Ohio faced a court order to redraw its own, which could favor Republicans in competitively leaning districts.
Republicans in states like Indiana and Florida are contemplating similar changes, while even Democratic leaders in traditionally blue Maryland are also considering rezoning. Meanwhile, Democrats recently gained a seat in Republican-dominated Utah, as a judge required the GOP-controlled legislature to create a new map after ruling that lawmakers had disregarded an independent committee designed to curb partisan gerrymandering.
