It’s the offseason doldrums, so everyone is indulging in what they love or hate: ranking quarterbacks. Playmakers get all the love, but they’re also the ones being ranked. Ranking players has been a bit of a pain lately. The difference between the 13th and 15th place QBs isn’t a big enough difference to matter. With the NFL having so many different flavors these days, there are more fun ways to discuss quarterbacks. With the NFL having more college-like passing games, quarterback styles have become so diverse that few QBs play the position the same way, making rankings more difficult.
But you know what’s simple? The Dungeons & Dragons Alignment Chart! For the uninitiated, the Dungeons & Dragons Alignment Chart is used to guide your character’s morality in the game. The style in which you play your Dungeons & Dragons session is based on their alignment, which is divided into three categories: Lawful, Neutral, and Chaotic. Lawful means that your character acts within a code of conduct or law, whether good or evil. Chaotic means, well, you get what that means. Neutral is in the middle, doing the best a person can, but not always following the law. Good, Neutral, and Evil are also pretty simple, so you get the idea.
But the question is, what on earth does that have to do with NFL QBs? So let me explain a bit on this subject (if I knew what Disney movie it was from, would we be friends? I think we would be friends then). Using advanced stats and film, I can compile NFL QBs into an alignment chart that will allow us to effectively discuss the most talked about position in sports in a way that doesn’t leave people scratching their heads. Here’s how I did it:
- Film: I used film as a backdrop for the placements on the chart, trying to blend playing style and personal process with statistics.
- Big Time Throws: We used PFF’s Big Time Throws metric to show how successful a QB is when things get chaotic, or how good he is at making the most difficult passes.
- Turnover Worth Pass: This is the same as BTT, but with much worse results. Think of it as attacking a goblin, but rolling a 1 instead of 18. Bad things can happen when you make a pass, and this metric measures that. The higher the TWP, the more chaos there is.
- Sack Rate When Pressured: This is one of the best indicators of how an NFL QB is playing. Pressure isn’t always on the QB, but how often they can create opportunities from pressure and not let that play become a huge negative is what separates a good QB from a great QB. The higher the Sack Rate When Pressured, the more chaos there is.
- Passing outside the pocket: Every QB wants to make big plays outside the pocket, like Patrick Mahomes did early in his career. But passing outside the pocket can be very erratic and lead to disaster. The more a QB relies on passing outside the pocket, the more chaos there will be.
With that in mind, here is the first version of the NFL Quarterback Alignment Chart: Everything stated here is canon and cannot be refuted.
Patrick Mahomes and the Neutral Good
If I were doing this in 2020 or 2021, Mahomes would undoubtedly be in top form. He’s still great, but he led the NFL in passing outside the pocket and generally leaned more toward the athletic, creative style of play that everyone tries to emulate.
But as his game has matured, so have his alignments. His passing outside the pocket has dropped off significantly, but his ability to avoid sacks and still play at a very high level has kept him going. And because he’s Patrick Mahomes, he’ll likely continue to do well until a Space Jam-like monster takes away his power.
The mess of trying to recreate Josh Allen
When I came up with the idea for this chart, I had Josh Allen in mind. The chaos professor was second in total passes outside the pocket, second in big-time throws, and second in turnover-worthy passes in 2023. He lives in a world of chaos, which has been the Bills’ greatest draw and detractor. But looking at the QBs below him, you can see the problem with trying to replicate a QB like Josh Allen in the NFL. Allen is that rare QB who has high base potential but grows exponentially to complete the high ceiling he has today. As long as there are Josh Allens, there are guys like Drew Lock, Will Revis, and Sam Howell. Guys who live in a world of chaos but don’t have the refinement or athleticism to make it work, making them chaotic badasses.
Another QB on Chaotic Good is Joe Burrow, which also explains why I think chaos should be expressed differently. Burrow is a chaotic QB. Despite only 90 snaps under pressure in 2023, Burrow’s sack rate was higher than his contemporaries Allen, Mahomes and Justin Herbert. His 9 turnover-worthy passes against 17 big-time throws also look very good. But what makes Burrow chaotic is his style of play. It may not be like Allen, but Burrow welcomes teams that send him pressure or blitzes. He chooses to overcome pressure with his head, not his body. He loves being in the middle of nowhere, where he can see and change everything on a whim. It’s a wild style of play, but it’s a bit muted because he doesn’t have the athleticism of Allen. His chaos looks different, but he’s still a pretty chaotic QB.
Rookie QB
I believe that almost all NFL rookie QBs will start in the Chaos Neutral tier. Because of the changes in the game at the college level, everyone plays a wild style that works in college that may not work in the NFL. That’s why I didn’t use college grades to tier them, because it’s much easier to become a better athlete than someone who just entered college. In the 2024 rookie class, all of the top QBs are in the Chaos Neutral class, except for Bo Nix and Michael Pennis Jr. Both of these guys remain neutral, but neither of them lean toward Chaos. Pennis is a stationary passer who doesn’t welcome pressure very much, and Nix doesn’t catch many passes downfield. Can they move up and down the board? Absolutely. The important thing to realize about this is that very few QBs stay in the same place throughout their careers. That’s the fun part of development!
How to deploy an injured QB
A few quarterbacks who missed seasons due to injury really struggled. Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson is a mixed neutral because he likes to make big plays, but the success of those plays is hit-or-miss with his style of play. Jets’ Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, was more difficult. He played just four snaps in 2023, and the last time he played a full season, he wasn’t the Rodgers we’re used to. He passed outside the pocket a lot less as his play matured, so I’d make him a legitimate neutral.
The biggest question mark was Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson. I really had a hard time ranking him, since 2020 was the last time he played a full season. And Watson’s numbers in 2020 were stellar: 42 big-time passes and 14 turnover-worthy passes. But he didn’t have a very good sack rate when under pressure, and he had the fifth-most passes outside the pocket. That would have made him a surefire pick for Chaos Good.
But four years is a long time ago, and Watson isn’t the QB he was. While his sack rate when pressured remains high (13th among QBs with 50 sack attempts), his ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy passes has dropped significantly. He just hasn’t been good enough as a passer in Cleveland to justify the many runs he’s lost since the move, which is why he’s joining Chaos Evil with little chance of that changing in the future.
