LAS VEGAS — If you don’t think a team with a better kicker could be the difference between a team covered in team-colored confetti and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and a team devastated and in tears at Sunday’s Super Bowl; You think so.” You’re not paying much attention.
The Chiefs, with a more seasoned head coach in Andy Reid and a brighter quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, will play in the 2024 Super Bowl on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium, facing their 49ers counterpart. It is widely known that he defeated a certain Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy.
Analyzing this game, what’s hidden beneath the surface of the stars and big names is that the Chiefs have a clear advantage over the 49ers at the kicker position.
The Chiefs know exactly what kicker Harrison Butker is capable of. They don’t even need to see him kick because he’s virtually automatic, not to mention he’s one of the most clutch postseason kickers in NFL history.
The 49ers are still trying to figure out what they have in kicker Jake Moody. Every time a rookie tries for a crucial field goal, they hold their breath. Because he hasn’t been consistent with some big goals this season.
The element of close games in the Super Bowl is real. Many of these games are decided by field goals. In the past 16 Super Bowls, 10 of which were decided by one point and four of which were decided by field goals, including the Giants defeating the undefeated Patriots 17-14 in 2008.
In last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35, with Butker’s winning goal coming off his right foot and a 27-yard field goal with eight seconds remaining.
The point differential in this game favors the 49ers by 1 1/2, so Las Vegas and all of its analytics and algorithms believe this is a field goal game.
On paper, that bodes well for the Chiefs.
In 18 postseason games, Butker made 28 of 32 field goals and 61 of 64 extra points. In Kansas City’s three playoff games this postseason, he made seven field goals, seven extra points, and made all four kicks.
This came after a regular season in which Butker made 40 of 42 field goal attempts (95 percent) and all 45 of his extra points, and was somehow left off the Pro Bowl team.
I believe Butker could be the slight edge that separates Kansas City from San Francisco in this game, and Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Taub agrees with that idea.
“He was a game-changer,” Taub told the Post. “I don’t think his blood pressure will ever be that high. He’s very balanced, which is good, and mentally he’s also very strong. With Harrison [Baltimore’s] Justin Tucker is two of the best kickers in the league. ”
In last season’s playoffs, Butker made 6 of 7 field goals, including a game-winning 45-yard shot to beat the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
After the Chiefs’ midseason struggles had many worried their run might be over, they defeated the Bengals on December 31st, and in that game Butker scored the most points the Bengals had as a team (17 ) scored more points (19) than (6 points) field goals and extra points.
Butker made two field goals, including a 47-yarder, in the Chiefs’ regional playoff victory over the Bills in windy, chilly weather. Meanwhile, Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass missed one of his two attempts, and just as the game looked like it was going to overtime, a 44-yard kick that could have tied the game just happened to go off the uprights. flew to the right.
Butker was the deciding factor in a razor-thin race.
Can he make a difference in Sunday’s biggest game on the biggest stage?
The 49ers drafted Moody in the third round this offseason to replace veteran Robbie Gould, one of the best postseason kickers in NFL history, having made all 29 of his field goals. He made the risky and eye-opening decision to do so. play off.
At times during the season, the 49ers felt some growing pains from Moody.
Moody wasn’t terrible in his rookie year, making 21 of 25 field goal attempts and missing one extra point in the regular season. But one of his mistakes was on a 41-yard attempt in Cleveland that could have cost the 49ers a one-score victory in Week 6. This was the first high-pressure kick of his career.
Moody will enter the Super Bowl having missed at least one kick in each of his last three games. That doesn’t inspire confidence on the 49ers’ sideline, no matter what they say publicly.
“I think he’s ready at this point,” 49ers general manager John Lynch said. “[We have] I have tremendous trust in Jake. A lot of people want to talk about some of the challenges he’s experienced and I like seeing how he reacts to them. And he’s very stable. He really is. ”
Toub called himself “very fortunate” when it comes to kickers because Chicago had Gould when he coached the Bears and now has Butker.
When asked about the possibility of the 49ers moving on from Gould and drafting Moody, Taub said, “We’ll find out on Sunday.”
