The biggest game of the NFL season. When Josh Allen plays Patrick Mahomes, it's hard not to have flashbacks to Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning.
Will Allen finally be able to overcome the Chiefs' difficulties? You can also see a list of my picks for all of Sunday's big games.
But for now, let's talk about props. The best way to bet on the NFL.
There are plenty of opportunities to break the books here, and Chiefs vs. Bills is no exception.
Chiefs vs. Bills player props and picks
Dalton Kincaid 39.5+ (-110, BetMGM) | All-Time Touchdown Scorer (+270, FanDuel) | 2+ Touchdowns (January 27, FanDuel)
This spot was originally slated to be held by Gabe Davis, as Buffalo's WR2 dominated the Chiefs in 2021. This time it's going to be all about Dalton Kincaid. The Bills' rookie tight end is developing into a star in Buffalo.
Kincaid has had three consecutive games with over 39.5 yards, and was held to 21 yards against Kansas City on Dec. 10, when he had eight targets thanks to Davis.
Kincaid featured heavily early in the game against the Steelers, when Buffalo was still throwing the ball in the first half. Expect Diggs to be featured prominently again, especially since Diggs struggled in the opener against Rajarius Snead.
I'd bet on running back Kincaid with these long-shot props covering the other two for over 39.5 receiving yards.
Recommended bankroll management: 1 unit with 39.5 receiving yards or more | .5 units of TD scorer +270 | .25 units with 2+ touchdowns (27/1)
James Cook, 16.5+ Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel) | 50+ Receiving Yards (+650, DraftKings)
Despite their strong performance over the past four weeks, they should still rely heavily on the Bills' running backs in Sunday's passing game.
But don't let this deter you.
Cook has had four targets in each of his last two games and has cleared 16 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games from Week 11 through Christmas in Week 16.
Although his performance in the passing game hasn't been as strong, that doesn't mean it's time to slow down and the opportunity still exists for Cook. Every screen pass and one broken tackle can get him 20 points.
Bet on this chance. Cook had 83 receiving yards in a Dec. 10 game against the Chiefs.
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Patrick Mahomes, 26.5+ rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) | All-time touchdown scorer (+550, FanDuel)
In big games, Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to run. Mahomes has had at least 26.5 rushing yards in seven of his last 12 playoff games, and has rushed for a touchdown in five of those games.
Putting this at +550 is at least a little ridiculous, and we all remember the helmet-shattering play Mahomes endured against the Dolphins. If he didn't get hit so hard there, Mahomes would have another rushing touchdown.
As for touchdowns, the Bills have allowed four to opposing quarterbacks in their last eight games, and Sunday's touchdown was the decisive one.
The FanDuel odds on Sunday where Mahomes can use his legs are great value.
