China’s Commodity Imports Show Mixed Signals in November
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 8 – In November, China’s commodity imports presented a mixed picture. While crude oil and iron ore demand remained robust, imports of copper and coal appeared to slow down.
Such varied results complicate any straightforward narrative regarding the demand from the world’s largest importer of natural resources.
Interestingly, it seems that price trends are more influential than actual demand for these primary goods. Crude oil and iron ore prices have been relatively stable in recent months, whereas copper and coal have experienced increases.
According to customs data released on Monday, crude oil imports hit 12.38 million barrels per day in November, the highest level in 27 months. This represents an 8.7% rise from October’s 11.39 million barrels per day and also surpasses last November’s figure of 11.81 million barrels per day.
For the first eleven months of this year, imports grew by 3.2%, amounting to an average of 11.41 million barrels per day.
Oil prices have remained steady, with global Brent crude futures trading around $65 a barrel, following a brief spike caused by geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Iran. This stability has prompted China to increase its crude stockpiling.
Data indicates that in the first ten months of the year, China enjoyed a crude oil surplus of about 900,000 barrels per day, calculated from official data on imports, domestic production, and refinery processing.
Similar to crude oil, iron ore arrivals have also seen an uptick, maintaining a steady flow in November. Imports reached 110.54 million tons, slightly above the 111.31 million tons recorded in October and about 8.5% higher than the 101.86 million tons from November last year.
China’s port iron ore inventories climbed to 142.4 million tons in the week ending December 5, marking the highest level since late February and a 9.5% increase from an 18-month low of 130.1 million tons in August.
Like crude oil, iron ore prices have been stable, with futures trading on the Singapore Exchange fluctuating between $100 and $108 per ton since early August. Recently, they were at $106.45 during Asian trading on Monday.
Copper and Coal Imports Decline
The decline in refined copper imports may be linked to pricing trends. In November, copper imports stood at 427,000 tons, down from October’s figure of 438,000 tons and significantly lower than November of the previous year when imports were 528,000 tons.
Prices in London have risen about 40% recently, climbing from a low of $8,105 per ton in April to a peak of $11,705 per ton on December 5. Ironically, despite being the top global consumer and producer of copper, concerns about potential tariffs from the U.S. have caused traders to exploit these price surges.
An increase in U.S. refined copper imports more than doubled, reaching 1.19 million tons in the first eight months this year compared to the prior year. This trend could likely continue as long as arbitrage opportunities remain enticing.
On the other hand, coal imports in November totaled 44.05 million tons, up from 41.74 million tons in October; however, this is nearly 20% lower than the 54.98 million tons imported in November last year.
Throughout the first 11 months of 2025, total coal imports of all grades saw a 12% decline to 431.68 million tons. Notably, thermal coal imports have been heavily influenced by China’s domestic production levels and pricing. Earlier this year, declining prices led marine transport grade to drop to a four-year low by July.
Since that downturn, offshore coal prices have rebounded, aligning with domestic prices, although production levels have not reached the heights seen the previous year.
