China’s military expansion is described in a recent Congressional report as approaching a “war base,” highlighted by the addition of hundreds of new missile silos and strengthened nuclear capabilities. This development could potentially erode America’s long-standing deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Over the last year, China has constructed roughly 350 new intercontinental missile silos and increased its nuclear warhead stockpile by about 20%. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission points out that this military growth might challenge U.S. preparedness to respond to Chinese aggression.
In its annual report for 2025 presented to Congress, the commission observes that China’s swift nuclear escalation, along with new AI-driven warfare technologies, is reshaping the People’s Liberation Army into a force with the potential to “engage the United States and win wars,” despite a disparity in nuclear arsenals.
The report reveals that China has rolled out an AI-powered electronic warfare system designed to detect and counter U.S. radar signals from locations spanning Guam to the Marshall Islands and even Alaska. Furthermore, it’s reported that 6G technology is being integrated into its military platforms.
At a military parade in Beijing this past September, China showcased its complete nuclear triad, featuring missiles capable of being launched from land, air, and sea.
The commission cautions that these advancements, paired with China’s oppressive political strategies and growing economic influence, could enable Beijing to act quickly and decisively during crises—potentially limiting the response time for the United States and its allies during an invasion scenario.
The committee urges Congress to mandate a comprehensive audit of U.S. defense readiness regarding Taiwan, expressing concern that the government may struggle to fulfill its obligations under Taiwan relations law. The report calls for assessments to evaluate the U.S. military’s capacity to counter any aggressive actions from China, even in conjunction with threats from Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
The commission also warns that a conflict over Taiwan could lead to a global GDP decline of up to 10%, an economic shock reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, raising the risk of catastrophic nuclear escalation and wider conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
Currently, China possesses around 600 nuclear warheads, with the Department of Defense estimating a target of 1,000 aircraft by 2030. The report emphasizes China’s control over essential semiconductors, rare earth materials, and circuit boards, highlighting that the nation’s economic pressure complicates the landscape. The dependencies noted might place the U.S. at risk, making it reliant on adversaries for critical components of its military and economy.
Among its 28 recommendations, the commission suggests Congress prohibit Chinese components in the U.S. power grid, establish a consolidated economic office to enforce export controls, and strengthen diplomatic ties with Taiwan, including partnerships with allies like the Vatican, which has faced attempts at isolation by Beijing.
In summary, the report concludes that “China’s rapid military and economic mobilization is reducing the U.S. warning window.” Without a coordinated response, U.S. deterrence could “prove inadequate” against China’s burgeoning capabilities.
