Kaohsiung, Taiwan – Beijing and Washington, D.C., will be watching closely as Taiwan votes to elect a new president on Jan. 13 amid growing concerns of armed conflict.
“A potential winner could further intensify moves toward what could be termed “de jure Taiwan independence.'' This would greatly increase the likelihood of war between the two countries, which the U.S. will almost certainly be involved, whether actively or passively,” Huang Kwai-bo, a professor of foreign affairs at National Chengchi University in Taipei, told FOX News Digital.
The most likely candidate is William Lai, the current vice chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is disliked by the Chinese government. The Democratic Progressive Party, once unashamedly pro-Taiwan independence, has softened its stance. The Democratic Progressive Party's new policies took shape under current President Tsai Ing-wen, and after her landslide re-election in 2020, Tsai told the BBC that Taiwan is already an independent country and calls itself a republic. He said there was no need to declare it. of China (Taiwan). ”
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Taiwan will hold presidential and legislative elections on January 13th, which will shape U.S.-China relations for years to come. (Photographer: An Rong Xu/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Lai, 64, has vowed to follow Tsai's lead and maintain the status quo if elected. This is not enough for President Xi Jinping, the all-powerful leader of the People's Republic of China (PRC), nor for the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). They are “generous'' proposing a similar agreement with Hong Kong to Taiwan, the so-called “one country, two systems'' policy, but vow to compromise beyond complete surrender.
Hong Kong was promised 50 years of uninterrupted freedom as a British colony after its handover in 1997, but in 2020 China withdrew this promise and imposed strict national security laws. , and then immediately charged the democrats with new laws. A crime punishable by severe punishment, including up to life in prison.
Lai's main opponent in Taiwan's presidential election is New Taipei Mayor Hou Yong-hui of the Kuomintang, or Kuomintang (KMT) party. Hou, 66, was once the island's top police officer and is currently the mayor of Taiwan's most populous city.
On January 3, 2024, Taiwan presidential candidate William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party is greeted by supporters during a visit to the Luzhou Li Family Historic District as part of his election campaign in New Taipei City. (Photo by SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)
Ho Yui and the Kuomintang Party have accepted a controversial concept known as the “1992 Consensus,” which essentially means that while there is indeed only one China, both sides are free to decide what this means. It comes down to the idea that it can be interpreted. The Democratic Party rejects the 1992 Consensus, which has never been put to a referendum or codified into law.
In recent years, President Tsai and her party have minimized the use of the official name, Republic of China. The Democratic Progressive Party accepts the Republic of China as the island's official name, but recommends the name “Taiwan” instead whenever possible. China refuses to even talk to representatives of the Democratic Progressive Party, claiming they are “separatists.” One of the mildly derogatory terms that Chinese Communists love to use in an exaggerated manner. Mr. Hou and the KMT deny that they are “pro-China,” just as the Democratic Progressive Party denies that they are “anti-China.” However, the Chinese government has a right to prioritize, considering a Kuomintang victory the “lesser of two evils.”
Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Yuxi salutes supporters during an election campaign in New Taipei City, Taiwan, on January 4, 2024. ((Photo by: Annabelle Chee/Getty Images))
All major political parties in Taiwan agree that Taiwan was never part of the People's Republic of China and reject China's claims of sovereignty over the island. What they disagree on is the future direction. The Democratic Progressive Party is pushing for closer official relations with the United States and its democratic allies, and is promoting the use of Taiwan as a de facto embassy, a mission abroad.
The Kuomintang will restore prominence to the title of Republic of China, seek to bring Chinese tourists back to Taiwan, and enact agreements that allow Chinese companies to enter areas of Taiwan's economy where they currently operate. banned and has generally adopted a more conciliatory relationship with China.
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Campaign posters in Taiwan range from large electronic billboards to posters affixed to building pillars. December 29, 2023. Kaohsiung, Taiwan. (Eric Michael Smith/Fox News)
“We cannot allow the Kuomintang to take power again. The last time the Kuomintang took power, they tried to implement pro-China policies that most Taiwanese people do not support. They sacrificed long-term interests. “Taiwan's viability as a free and democratic country,'' said the Democratic Progressive Party, which represents several districts in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan's largest city with about 2.7 million people. City Councilwoman Cherry Tan told FOX News Digital.
She continued: “Although I have many friends in the KMT and sometimes work with KMT colleagues, I wholeheartedly disagree with many of their policies. We are still in the process of supporting the DPP. We strongly encourage the people of Taiwan to continue supporting the Democratic Progressive Party.” -Taiwan's agenda for the coming years. ”
Chinese President Xi Jinping waves at an event to introduce new members of the Politburo Standing Committee at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 23, 2022. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
The Kuomintang argues that voting for them will improve communication and trade relations with China. Despite the Democratic Progressive Party being the ruling party, trade between Taiwan and China reached approximately $205 billion in 2022. However, China recently warned in no uncertain terms that trade would be affected by a Democratic Progressive Party victory in 2024. According to a report by Reuters, on December 27, Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the China Taiwan Affairs Office, used religious-like language at a press conference in Beijing, saying, “The Democratic Progressive Party authorities are stubbornly adhering to Taiwan's independence position.'' “If they do not repent, we will support them.” Relevant departments are taking further measures…”
Taiwan is bombarded with television and internet advertising during election periods, but for decades there have been small trucks carrying election posters and loudspeaker recordings urging people to vote for different candidates. has become a staple of politics.
Beijing's attempts to influence Taiwan's elections began in 1996, when China conducted a pre-election “missile test,” prompting then-President Clinton to send the U.S. 7th Fleet to the region. It dates back to Taiwan's first democratic presidential vote.
But since then, those threats have become more ominous, now that the Chinese government has a real ability to exploit them. On December 26, 2023, close to the holy day commemorating the 130th birth anniversary of Mao Zedong, the original demigod of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping said, “The complete reunification of the motherland is a general trend and a great cause.'' Yes, our motherland must and will definitely be unified. [We] We firmly oppose any measures that seek to separate Taiwan from China. ”
Election posters for various legislative committee candidates on Wednesday, December 27, 2023 in Taipei, Taiwan. Taiwan is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections on January 13, elections that will help shape U.S.-China relations for years to come. (An Rong Xu/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
China's supreme leader spoke that day from the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, but his remarks were not just aimed at a domestic audience. Dean Karalekas, editor-in-chief of Strategic Vision, an English-language security journal published in Taiwan, told Fox News Digital that China likes to rattle its sabers, but their cries can bite. He said that's not to say there aren't. “Some factions in this campaign are framing the election as a choice between war and peace, which may sound like typical election-year fear-mongering,” Karalekas said. The Chinese government is tacitly trying to uphold that claim.”
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Supporters participate in a campaign rally for the Nationalist Party ahead of Taiwan's presidential election to be held in Taipei on December 23, 2023. (Photo by I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images)
Chiang Kai-shek, another Kaohsiung resident, said he hopes the ruling party will change. Since the Democratic Progressive Party's President Tsai took office, large numbers of Chinese tourists have stopped coming to Taiwan, and her business, which sells jade jewelry, has suffered a severe blow. Chiang Kai-shek told Fox New Digital: “All I want is peace. Yes, it would be good for my business if more Chinese tourists came, but more importantly… “Peace. My only son is 15 years old. I don't want him or anyone else.” Young people have to go to war and experience the hardships that their fathers and grandfathers endured in military conflicts. ”
William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party is leading in opinion polls, but not by an overwhelming margin. Regarding recent election campaign failures, Mr. Lai asked what happened to the 104-year-old KMT's anti-communist credentials, saying that the KMT's support for “one China” is not only divisive, but also a threat to Taiwan's sovereignty. He argued that it could be “deadly” for people. Opposition leader Hou claims the other side is deliberately misrepresenting its position on China and that Lai and the Democratic Progressive Party are the real threat to peace.
Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with delegates attending the first People's Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Army Party Congress while touring the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Army in Beijing, September 26, 2016. (Xinhua News Agency/Li Gang, via Getty Images)
The Chinese leader, who wields more power than any previous emperor, addressed the Communist Party on New Year's Eve and raised the usual “Taiwan issue.” President Xi's comments echoed his previous statements, saying, “China's unification is a historical necessity…Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.'' ” he said. ”
Shortly thereafter, outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen issued a lengthy speech in which she refuted Xi's “common sense” comments and reiterated that only the Taiwanese people, through democratic processes, can decide on Taiwan's future. Tsai also said that he trusts the wisdom of the Taiwanese people and does not believe they will be swayed by perception wars or manipulation by the Chinese government.
On August 9, Taiwan's military conducted a live-fire training exercise simulating island defense in response to China's live-fire training in waters near the island. (Annabelle Chee/Getty Images)
Whichever candidate wins, they will continue to face a hostile China. Beijing may like the Kuomintang, but the Kuomintang has no intention of welcoming “one country, two systems” or other schemes that put Beijing in charge of Taiwan.
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Democratic Taiwan therefore remains an irritant for Beijing and a potential flashpoint for global conflict beyond 2024. It is not due to the actions of the Taiwanese people, but is entirely a fabricated hoax aimed at bullying Taiwan and persuading the US and other democracies of the world to shut up and allow Taiwan to be swallowed up by the Chinese Communist Party. This is due to “tensions” in China.
The third candidate in the presidential election is former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, a member of the Taiwan People's Party, who continues with an approval rating of about 20%. A deciding factor could be how many of Mr. Go's supporters support him and how many switch to one of the leading candidates. The results of the presidential election should be known on the evening of January 13th.
