Republicans Focus on Voter Turnout Strategies Ahead of Midterms

Chris LaCivita, co-campaign manager for Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential run, shared with Breitbart News that the party is continuing voter turnout strategies established during the earlier election. Trump plans to campaign for 30 days as Republicans aim to keep their congressional majorities.

In an exclusive chat with Matthew Boyle, who heads Breitbart News’ Washington bureau, LaCivita challenged the pessimism some Republican consultants have expressed about the midterms. He criticized their dependence on conventional political wisdom and public polling.

“You hear all this complaining, and frankly, it’s out of ignorance, coming from folks who seem to accept the status quo,” LaCivita remarked. “President Trump has never gone along with that, nor has his team.”

“Midterms are always tough for the party in power,” he noted, adding, “But if there’s anyone who can change that, it’s definitely this president.”

Despite the negative ratings for Republicans, LaCivita argued that there could be an advantage for them looking at congressional approval ratings.

“Yes, Republicans in Congress are underwater in their unfavorable ratings, but the Democrats are even worse by about 15 points,” he explained. “People may not like Republicans in Congress, but they have a strong dislike for Democrats, which gives us a leg to stand on.”

He pointed out recent legislation on tax provisions, which include additional deductions for seniors, and lambasted Democrats for opposing these measures. “I used to imagine having such clear contrasts to counter their arguments,” he shared.

When discussing public polling, LaCivita accused some media and academic institutions of manipulating survey designs to achieve biased results. “They often oversample Democrat voters who may not be as likely to actually vote, all to create a desired outcome,” he stated.

“It’s crucial to have professionals conducting calls and a good model in place for predicting voter turnout,” he added, emphasizing the strategic assumptions that shape survey design and questioning methods.

LaCivita emphasized that campaigns should focus more on the candidates’ favorability ratings instead of just ballot test results, which he described as leading indicators of election outcomes.

“The ballot matters, sure, but it’s not nearly as significant as those favorable ratings. They often dictate how the ballot ends up,” he explained. “This is why campaigns invest so heavily in targeting their opponents, aiming to increase negativity against them.”

He reflected on the 2022 midterms, where Republican expectations for a sweeping victory didn’t pan out, illustrating the unpredictability of polling and forecasts. “Remember, everyone thought it would be a red wave, and it simply wasn’t,” he recalled. “No election is set in stone until every ballot is counted.”

Looking ahead to the November elections, LaCivita described how Republicans intend to enhance their voter turnout operations from 2024.

“Success in 2024 hinged on pinpointing casual voters in key battlegrounds and mobilizing them,” he said. “The strategies we’ve developed are being carried forward into this November, and they will be a primary focus for us.”

When discussing the North Carolina Senate race, he stressed understanding GOP voters and the needs of those they might persuade.

“Having accurate voter registration and knowing what persuadable voters prioritize is key,” he added. “They care about gas prices and the cost of living.”

He also mentioned substantial Republican investments in the North Carolina race, estimating outside funding has surpassed $100 million, acknowledging the state’s costly media landscape.

“North Carolina is large, and its media markets are expensive, especially around Charlotte,” he noted.

The conversation then shifted to the Senate’s electoral map, highlighting Republican-held states like Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. LaCivita underscored that these states backed Trump in the last presidential election, affirming his participation would help rally those voters.

“Ohio is ours. Alaska is ours. Iowa is ours. Texas is ours,” he affirmed. “For Democrats, winning in a state Trump secured is a tall order, and they need convincing wins to do so.”

LaCivita mentioned that Trump’s campaign activities would enhance Republican efforts in terms of spending and voter turnout.

“We have the tactical edge, financial resources, and a distinct advantage with the president campaigning for 30 days to energize and mobilize our voters,” he stated.

Discussing the House’s control, LaCivita recognized the inherent challenges of maintaining a majority during midterms but expressed optimism about voter mobilization.

“Retaining the House will undoubtedly be tough, yet I’m cautiously optimistic about our potential to activate voters,” he said. “A slight change in turnout, just two to four points in each district, could secure victories for us.”

He also mentioned internal divisions within the Democratic Party may dampen voter enthusiasm, indicating that Republicans would focus their national messaging on Trump’s economic policies, such as tax cuts and addressing living costs.

“We aim to spotlight the president so we can keep cutting taxes, spur economic growth, and tackle living expenses,” LaCivita explained. “This gives us substantial topics for discussion.”

He pointed out that while national messages are vital, grassroots efforts in individual districts will be essential for boosting Republican turnout.

“The national environment is crucial,” he acknowledged, “but our ground tactics in these congressional areas will drive turnout significantly.”

Boyle concluded by asking LaCivita about Trump’s effectiveness in rallying Republican voters, referencing an uptick in turnout during a recent primary that followed a Trump campaign rally.

LaCivita emphasized the significance of Trump’s presence for candidates looking to engage voters who typically don’t participate in midterm elections, warning against any candidate distancing themselves from the president.

“If you’re a Republican candidate even thinking about not embracing the president, you’re making a severe miscalculation. You’ve got to maximize turnout among Trump supporters,” he cautioned.

He also mentioned Trump’s plans to conduct telephone rallies as part of their strategy, calling them effective in engaging voters.

“Having the president hit the road, combined with these tele rallies, is incredibly effective,” LaCivita noted. “From our perspective, there’s no better motivator for turning out voters than President Trump.”

He wrapped up by stressing that Republicans plan to campaign on their achievements rather than only talk about future goals, saying, “We’re discussing our accomplishments, not just what we hope to achieve. With the president rallying the voters in this context, we’ll be in a much stronger position than normal for a midterm.”