Saddle Brook, New Jersey

Election Day is approaching, and Republican candidates are gearing up for one of just two gubernatorial races in the country this year.

“Winning teams end well,” Jack Ciattarelli told supporters packed into a diner in Saddle Brook earlier this week. “Let’s win this race.”

Ciattarelli, who has run for governor in New Jersey for three consecutive years and came close to defeating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy four years back, appears quite confident.

Even though registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the state, some recent polls show Ciattarelli narrowing the gap with Democratic candidate Rep. Mikie Sherrill. This race is to fill the seat left by Murphy, who cannot run again due to term limits.

Trump’s Influence in New Jersey Race

A recent Fox News poll, taken between October 10 and 14, found Sherrill with a 50% approval rating compared to Ciattarelli’s 45%. This is down from an 8-point lead for Sherrill in September.

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states facing gubernatorial elections the year after a presidential election, and these races often draw significant attention. They are viewed as indicators for next year’s midterms.

This year is especially scrutinized, as many perceive the election as a referendum on President Trump’s controversial second-term agenda.

Despite Democrats traditionally dominating elections in blue New Jersey, Republicans have been quite competitive, winning 5 of the past 10 gubernatorial elections.

Trump, although not on the ballot, won New Jersey by a large margin in the last presidential election, losing it by just 6 points—a notable improvement from a 16-point loss four years prior.

In a recent interview, Ciattarelli claimed he made significant progress in “Hudson County and Passaic County,” areas historically aligned with Democrats. He emphasized that Trump had also performed well in these areas and noted support from prominent local Democrats wanting change.

Ciattarelli aims to invigorate Republican voters, especially considering this election is likely to see lower turnout.

Reports indicate Trump plans to hold a call with Ciattarelli before Election Day, potentially energizing MAGA supporters who might skip voting in off-year elections.

Ciattarelli recently appeared with Vivek Ramaswamy, a GOP candidate from Ohio, at a campaign event in Saddle Brook. Ramaswamy expressed confidence in Ciattarelli’s campaign, stating, “This year we need you to lead the way.”

Democratic Concerns

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin raised concerns over Republican confidence in the New Jersey race, considering it a key area for stopping the Democrats’ momentum.

Although Trump’s name will not appear on the ballot, the race is capturing widespread interest. In the final debate, Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of not opposing Trump and labeling him as “100% MAGA.”

When asked about his alignment with that label, Ciattarelli identified himself as “part of the New Jersey movement.”

If asked to grade Trump’s presidency, Ciattarelli boldly rated it an A, claiming he’s doing things right. This opinion certainly raised eyebrows, especially among some voters in New Jersey.

Controversy has surrounded the campaign, particularly after a miscommunication led to the public release of Sherrill’s sensitive military information to Ciattarelli’s allies.

Adding more drama, Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of colluding with drug companies in the opioid crisis due to connections with a publishing firm he owned that supported opioid use.

This week, Trump made headlines by threatening to withdraw federal funding from a significant infrastructure project, targeting Sherrill and Ciattarelli.

Sherrill defended the project as vital for New Jersey, asserting, “I’m fighting for the people of New Jersey, while he’s just making excuses for Trump.”

Traditionally, New Jersey governors align with the party in the White House, which gives Democrats an edge this election. However, history shows that voters in New Jersey have favored Republicans in recent elections.

The upcoming elections are set to challenge these longstanding political trends.