With just over a year to go until the midterm elections, maintaining a Republican majority in the House and Senate is crucial for continuing President Trump’s policies. Democrats aim for the elections to serve as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. Republicans, however, might benefit more by focusing on the negative impacts of former President Biden’s spending habits, border policies, climate change initiatives, and the need to reverse anti-crime measures. It’s going to take time—two years to drain the swamp and likely another two to replant it.
In New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, Republican Jack Ciattarelli is making strides, narrowing the gap with Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill. He seems to be creating a strategy that could lead to a Republican win next November.
Ciattarelli is campaigning against sanctuary cities, advocating against cashless bail for violent offenders, proposing a cap on property taxes, and introducing a “Parental Bill of Rights.” He also wants to ban offshore wind farms along New Jersey’s coast and implement a state DOGE to tackle spending issues. Essentially, he’s positioning himself against some of Biden’s more problematic Democratic policies while trying to resonate with New Jersey voters.
Democrats appear alarmed, pouring resources into the race to defeat Ciattarelli. Currently, Sherrill holds a narrow 4-point lead according to polling averages, a significant shift given she was once ahead by double digits just months ago.
Despite heavy financial backing for Sherrill—14 times more than Ciattarelli and $20 million from a super PAC—her lead is dwindling. The Democrats’ expenditure on ads surpassed what was spent on incumbent Governor Phil Murphy’s campaign in 2021.
It’s understandable for Democrats to be anxious; Trump lost New Jersey by a mere 6 points last year, compared to a 16-point loss in 2020. Notably, the state had the second-highest presidential tilt during that election. Ciattarelli’s prior campaign against Murphy also saw him lose by just 3 points.
A Rutgers-Eagleton poll from this summer revealed that 85% of New Jersey residents are unhappy with the state’s high cost of living, and 80% dislike the taxes. It’s not hard to see why—New Jersey ranks as the fourth most taxed state and is among the top 10 most expensive states to live in. The business climate isn’t favorable either, positioned 38th in cost of doing business and second to last in business friendliness, right after New York. If businesses struggle, communities inevitably do too.
One prominent issue in this campaign is the skyrocketing electricity costs in New Jersey, which have surged 22% this year, while the national average increase is only 5%. The average resident pays 25.31 ¢/kWh, which is 44% above the national average. Commercial electricity rates aren’t any better, at 18.38 ¢/kWh, marking a 29% increase over the national average.
Ciattarelli places the blame firmly on Democrats, who have held power in the governor’s mansion for eight years and the state Legislature for over 20 years. He reminds voters that when Murphy took office, New Jersey was a net energy exporter; now, due to the Democratic focus on climate change, the state has become an importer.
The state has shut down all coal and nuclear plants partly to comply with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which aims to limit carbon emissions. Ciattarelli has critiqued this as a costly carbon tax, estimating it costs New Jersey between $300 million and $500 million annually.
Though New Jersey was an early member of RGGI under a Democratic governor, Republican Chris Christie, worried about rising energy costs, withdrew the state from the agreement in 2012, arguing that carbon emissions had decreased due to a shift away from coal to natural gas—not because of RGGI.
Governor Murphy, who garnered significant backing from environmentalists and embraced Biden’s climate change agenda, rejoined RGGI only to see electricity costs skyrocket. Cap-and-trade adds extra costs for utilities that ultimately get passed on to residents.
Besides imposing a cap-and-trade structure on New Jersey, Murphy has also obstructed natural gas pipeline projects that could have provided cheaper fuel to the state, similar to New York.
Ciattarelli is not only informing voters about RGGI costs but is also highlighting the long-term downsides of depending on unreliable renewable energy sources, which Biden supports. As electricity becomes more critical for modern technologies, states that have increased prices due to mismanagement will struggle to attract high-tech investments like AI data centers.
The New Jersey governor’s race may offer insights into the forthcoming midterm elections. Will voters choose to replace politicians who have driven businesses and residents away, or will they continue with policies that may lead to higher taxes and costs?
