While initially alarmed about a potential collision with Earth, experts on “urban killer” asteroids now anticipate that it will avoid the planet, although it may still strike the moon.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, identified in December 2024 and estimated to have a 3% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, is now considered to have an essentially negligible risk of hitting our planet. NASA updated this information on Wednesday.
In response to earlier high concerns raised by scientists about various asteroids this year, astronomer Andrew Livin conducted a five-hour study of space debris, suggesting that it could affect other celestial bodies instead.
The chances of a football field-sized asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032, increased from 1.7% in late February to 3.8%, based on observations made using the James Webb Space Telescope.
As per the findings of experts at the Earth Object Research Center associated with NASA, asteroids tend to completely miss the moon 96.2% of the time, although they do not alter its orbit.
Earlier assessments suggested varying sizes of the asteroid, estimating it to be between 40 and 90 meters. However, a study by Rivkin provided a more precise measurement of 60 meters.This was reported by New Scientist.
The likelihood of the asteroid bypassing Earth is strong, leading astronomers to prepare for a potential impact on the moon.
“One of the reasons to keep monitoring this specific asteroid is to either increase its trajectory numbers or reduce them to zero,” states Livkin. “With a 2% chance of collision, there’s a 98% likelihood of it avoiding impact. If you were gambling, that bet would be insane.”
Scientists plan to observe asteroids with Webb telescopes again in May, allowing for the collection and analysis of data on these faint celestial objects before they move further into the outer solar system.
