CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024: Odds, predictions, value picks for next PGA Tour event

Two weeks before the PGA Championship at Valhalla, the PGA Tour returns to the Lone Star State for the third time this season, with CJ Cup Byron Nelson taking center stage.

There’s not a lot of firepower in the field this week, with only Jordan Spieth ranked inside the top 20 in the world. Also competing this week are defending champions Jason Day, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris, as well as Presidents Cup hopefuls Adam Scott, Kim Si-woo, and Im Sung-jae.

TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, north of Dallas, will host the tournament for the fourth time. KH Lee won in 2021 and 2022 with 25 under and 26 under, respectively, winning his first two times with this layout.

Day won last year with 23 under par.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds:

The current situation is as follows odds According to DraftKings, for a player to win:

• Jordan Spieth +1400
• Jason Day +1800
• Will Zalatoris +2200
• Kim Si Woo +2200
• Im Sung Jae +2500
• Alex Noren +2500
• Adam Scott +2500
• Tom Hoge +2800
• Lee Min Woo +2800
• Stefan Jaeger +3000
• Ahn Byung Hun +3000
• Tom Kim +3000
• Keith Mitchell +3500
• Thomas Detrie +4000

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Prediction

TPC Craig Ranch is one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour, so it’s no surprise that the course sees many birdies each year.

So this week, we’ll be focusing on players who can make a string of birdies to perform well on this generous layout.

Jordan Spieth finishes in top 5 at home

Jordan Spieth has had a rocky season so far, and currently ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and third in birdie or better conversion rate at 37.54%. This statistic is Spieth’s total number of birdies this season (134) divided by his total number of green hits (357).

Although he may play erratically at times, Spieth relies on his putter again and again to keep himself in the mix. He obviously makes a lot of birdies as well.

We’ll see him compete again at TPC Craig Ranch, where he finished solo 2nd two years ago and tied for 9th in 2021. We expect the Dallas native to finish in the top five at +360.

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Mark Hubbard continues to play well

Mark Hubbard, 34, has never missed a spot in any of the 12 events he has competed in this year. He tied for fourth in his rain-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, his best individual finish. But Hubbard also finished solo in third place with Ryan Brehm in the two-person team play event at last week’s Zurich Classic in New Orleans.

He’s been playing well, in part because of his ability to make a lot of birdies. The San Jose State product has produced 187 this season, ranking fifth on the PGA Tour. Considering TPC Craig Ranch produces a lot of par breakers, Hubbard will rely on solid tee-to-green play to rack up a ton of birdies this week.

DraftKings lists Hubbard at +650 to finish in the top 10, but if you feel as bullish as we do, +1400 is a solid price to finish in the top 5.

Photo by Chris Gracen/Getty Images

Tom Hoge recovers from missed cut

Tom Hoge, widely regarded as one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour, will be in action this week in the Dallas area.

He missed last week’s Zurich Classic, but before that he played well at Havertown Golf Links through the first 36 holes and was in for most of the weekend. His final round was a disappointing 2-over 74, which dropped him a bit on the leaderboard and tied for 18th place, a much worse result than his performance would suggest.

Hoge has performed well in other big events this year, finishing tied for sixth at Pebble Beach in California and solo eighth at Riviera. Although he did not receive an invitation to Augusta National, he had a productive year.

Still, Hoge ranks second only to Scottie Scheffler on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green. He also ranks second in total birdies this season with 209, and his 4.58 birdies per round ranks ninth on the PGA Tour.

The Hoge is also a very good putter. Through 39 rounds this season, Hoge has averaged 81.5 feet of putts per round, good for fifth on the PGA Tour. He has all the pieces to play at the highest level, and considering this week’s weak field, we’d like Hoge to be in the top five at +650.

Photo by Chris Gracen/Getty Images

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Longshot Pick

Since missing out on the Arnold Palmer Invitational in mid-March, Adam Schenk has posted three top-20 finishes, including a tie for fifth at the Valero Texas Open and a tie for 12th at the Masters. ing.

At +5500 to victory, I like the idea of ​​Schenck finally breaking through and getting his first PGA Tour win at that price.

Although Schenck has struggled a bit with his ball-striking, he’s still finding plenty of ways to make birdies, ranking seventh on tour in total birdies this season. He also makes a lot of putts from inside 10 feet, which is an essential part of his winning formula on any course.

Schenck is heading in the right direction and will arrive in Texas well-rested and refreshed considering he did not compete in the Zurich Classic in New Orleans.

Boiler up!

Photo credit: Tracy Wilcox/PGA Tour (Getty Images)

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Winner

With CJ Group taking over sponsor naming rights for this year’s tournament, we believe a player represented by the Korean conglomerate will win.

That’s why this week sees Siu Kim as the favorite for his fifth PGA Tour victory, and his first since the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii.

Kim had a solid year, making all 11 cuts and recording five top-20 finishes. His best finish was a tie for 6th place at The Players Championship, while his worst finish was a tie for 44th place at the Genesis Invitational.

He has a beautiful swing and his stats reflect that. Kim ranks fourth in strokes gained from tee to green this season, but his putter is holding him back. He currently ranks 141st in strokes gained putts on the PGA Tour.

Photo by Andrew Reddington/Getty Images

Still, the Seoul, South Korean native has made many birdies, which are essential on this course. He made 178 of them this season, good for 11th on the PGA Tour, and also had nine eagles for fourth place. Kim also has a lower ranking than him, which explains why he ranks within the top 12 on tour in both adjusted average and actual scoring average.

Kim lives in the Dallas area, so I’m sure that will help as well.

I like his price at +2200 to win this week. Only Jordan Spieth and Jason Day have worse odds than Kim, which is a testament to Kim’s talent and weaknesses.

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Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through.Be sure to check it out @_PlayingThrough Cover more golf. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko In the same way.