Coco Gauff took her first real test of the Australian Open on Monday night, and she passed.
The 19-year-old American fell behind Marta Kostyuk early in the first set, then lost the second set before struggling to control the match in the decider.
It was the first time Gauff had dropped a set in this tournament.
With this victory, Gauff advanced to the Australian Open semi-finals for the first time.
She will face defending champion Aryna Sabalenka on Thursday morning (3:30 a.m. ET). As of this writing, Sabalenka is a -215 favorite on her FanDuel.
Australian Open: Coco Gauff vs Arina Sabalenka Prediction
Needless to say, both Sabalenka and Gauff will be in top form going into the semi-finals.
Gauff is 10-0 to start 2024 and has lost just two sets so far this season, one to Elina Svitolina and one to Kostyuk in the final in Oakland.
The key to Gauff's success was her elite first serve.
Gauff was even more erratic in the win over Kostyuk, getting broken seven times, but once play started, she was in complete control for the most part.
She won over 70% of her first serve points in her first nine matches in 2024 and faced just 13 break points in her first four matches in Melbourne.
Gauff will need to rediscover her serve form against Sabalenka. Sabalenka is one of the few players on the WTA Tour with a stronger serve than the American star.
Sabalenka has won 80.8% of her service games over the past 52 weeks and has proven in the past that when she can stay calm, few, if any, players can keep up with her.
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However, despite reaching the final four seven times, she has only won one Grand Slam title and reached the final twice, raising questions about her mental strength.
Sabalenka should be boosted by the fact that her only title came here, having yet to drop a set in five matches in Melbourne and facing a break point just eight times. So she's clearly dreaming about this surface.
Sabalenka deserves to be favored based on her experience and performance in Australia, but these odds seem a bit wide.
tennis summary The ELO model actually has Gauff as the favorite, which may be a bit of a stretch, but it shows this match is closer to a coin flip than this price suggests.
Bet: Gauff (+182, FanDuel)
