- Key insights: Coinbase’s revenue has decreased as the Bitcoin market has dropped significantly in recent months.
- What is the problem: Investors are seeking indications that crypto companies can thrive despite unpredictable market conditions.
- Future outlook: Coinbase is working on introducing new products on its platform and is expanding its collaborations with traditional financial institutions.
Recently, despite Bitcoin’s value tumbling from about $125,000 in October to around $60,000 earlier this month, Coinbase’s shareholder letter revealed some critical insights:
“Experience shows that cryptocurrencies tend to be cyclical and are seldom as extreme—good or bad—as they appear.”
While that idea holds some truth, the current turmoil in the crypto market is really putting pressure on Coinbase’s finances, which isn’t a shock considering it owns about 12% of global cryptocurrencies.
For the last quarter, Coinbase reported a staggering loss of $666.7 million, translating to a loss of $2.49 per share—markedly down from earnings of $4.68 per share in Q4 2024. Analysts from FactSet are projecting earnings of around $1 per share for Q4 2025.
In response to a question regarding the potential for another “crypto winter,” Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s co-founder and CEO, shared during the earnings call: “I’m not looking to forecast too much here… When the market’s down, I have to admit that I somewhat enjoy these periods because, oddly enough, we can keep building.”
Coinbase by the numbers
Coinbase’s revenue for the fourth quarter reached $1.78 billion, which is a 21.6% decline compared to the previous year and falls short of the anticipated $1.81 billion from FactSet.
As noted by Coinbase’s Chief Financial Officer, Alecia Haas, during the earnings call, “Market conditions have certainly been challenging,” but the firm is still progressing, reporting nine consecutive quarters of “native inflows,” meaning users engaging with the service. “People in the market tend to act quickly in their purchases,” Haas noted.
Looking ahead, Coinbase expects its first-quarter revenue from subscriptions and services for 2026 to fall between $550 million and $630 million, reflecting a generally lower cryptocurrency price environment.
“Coinbase’s fourth-quarter outcomes fell short of expectations, which is discouraging as negative trends in the crypto market continue,” remarked KeyBank Capital Markets in a recent report. “While recent product offerings, such as prediction markets and stocks, could yield some short-term benefits, we believe the current market conditions will make it difficult for these products to succeed.”
More than Bitcoin
Armstrong emphasizes that the company’s diversification strategy might help it navigate through tough times.
However, the number of monthly verified users—a crucial metric—has plateaued, dropping from 11.2 million at the end of 2021 to 9.2 million by the end of 2025.
Coinbase’s diversification effort, known as Everything Exchange, aims at generating more active user participation and increasing revenue from areas beyond Bitcoin trading.
This initiative, launched in Q2 2024, provides a unified platform for trading various assets—including cryptocurrencies, stocks, and prediction markets. “The goal is to have access to all necessary investment and trading options in a single location.”
Coinbase is also amplifying its outreach to traditional financial companies. In late December, a partnership between Coinbase and Standard Chartered expanded to offer new crypto services for institutional clients, like custody, staking, trade execution, and security. In another instance, Klarna has announced its plans to raise short-term funding in Coinbase’s USDC stablecoin.
During Thursday’s call, Armstrong highlighted several strategic advancements. Following the launch of Everything Exchange, the company now has 12 products and aims to generate over $100 million in annual revenue, an increase from eight products in 2025, according to Coinbase.
“Everything Exchange is just getting started,” commented analysts at William Blair in a report. “We see this as a growing list of potential $100 million annual revenue products. Despite facing competition, we believe Coinbase is better positioned in this current crypto downturn compared to previous cycles due to its product development. Claims from critics that Coinbase is merely a pricey consumer crypto exchange are losing credibility.”
