In a battle of top teams, No. 15 Baylor will play No. 7 Kansas on Saturday afternoon, hoping to clinch a regular-season series berth.
The Jayhawks won the first meeting 64-61, but were unable to cover the spread as 5.5-point favorites.
The biggest factor in this matchup is that KU’s best player, Kevin McCullar Jr., will likely be out.
The senior guard, who averages 19.0 points per game in the Big 12, has already missed four games and is in doubt for the rest of the season due to a persistent knee bruise.
The Jayhawks aren’t the same team without McCuller, especially on the road.
In this preview, we share why bettors should back the Bears as favorites in this revenge spot, which switches venues to Foster Pavilion in Waco.
Kansas vs Baylor odds
| spread | total | money line |
| Kansas +4.5 (-114) | 145.5 or higher (-110) | Kansas +160 |
| Baylor -4.5 (-106) | Less than 145.5 (-110) | Baylor -194 |
kansas analysis
Even if Jayhawks coach Bill Self isn’t pressing the panic button, he’s definitely sounding the alarm. Kansas took a rare 12-point lead against BYU in the second half, ending their home winning streak at 19.
In his postgame press conference, Self said the veterans didn’t handle adversity particularly well.
“I’ve seen some things in practice with the guys. It was a frustration that we weren’t as mature as we should have, considering the age of some of the players,” Self said. “I wasn’t thinking (about) the next play as much as I was thinking (about) the last play. That’s not a good sign. When you’re watching from the stands, you can see the body language and things like that.”
If Kansas State is already starting to fall apart in front of its home crowd, what happens when it finds itself in a hostile environment on the road?
I’ve always been somewhat critical of Self in that his teams typically don’t schedule non-conference road games. Therefore, I don’t think his team will be fully prepared when conference play begins.
Even worse, they will likely have to find a way to cope without McCuller. McCuller is one of three double-digit scorers for the Jayhawks, compared to six for the Bears.
Kansas is already a top-tier team, so the potential loss of McCuller could be devastating against the Bears on the road.
baylor analysis
If the Bears had taken better care of the ball, they might have won the game on the road against Kansas. Baylor had 13 more turnovers than Kansas (21 total) and the Jayhawks scored 17 points.
Those turnovers were ultimately the difference in Kansas’ three-point victory.
There’s no question that Allen Fieldhouse is a difficult place for visiting teams to play, but the Bears hope their new home at Foster Pavilion will be just as difficult for opposing teams.
Baylor’s home-to-away divide is pretty dramatic, considering TeamRankings ranks them ninth in offensive efficiency with 115.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Bears average 108.5 points per possession on the road, but that number improves to 122.1 points at home.
There was a similar discrepancy on the defensive end, with Baylor’s efficiency rating improving from 107.2 to 95.2.
Comparing the net point differential between Baylor and Kansas, the Bears have a +6.4 advantage.
Baylor will definitely have an advantage on the perimeter, as Kansas ranks 304th in 3-pointers with 5.9 made per game.
The Jayhawks have also struggled defensively on the perimeter, ranking 291st in 3-point field goal attempts with an average of 8.3.
Baylor, by comparison, ranks 35th with nine 3-pointers per game and 9.9 at home.
The Jayhawks lost to BYU on Tuesday after failing to stop the Cougars on the perimeter.
BYU ranks second in the nation with 11.4 3-pointers per game, so the Bears could follow a similar blueprint and hand Kansas another loss.
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Kansas vs. Baylor predictions
(1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The key to this game for me will be Baylor’s 3-point shooting and ability to win turnover battles.
Kansas knows they need to limit Baylor’s possessions to have any chance of keeping the game close, so they’ll want to spoil things as much as possible.
According to us Actions Labs DatabaseBaylor is 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread in redemption spots from losses of three points or less.
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With McCullough’s status in serious doubt, the Bears will be too big of a threat for Kansas offensively, and I want them to have a chance to cover the expansion and tie this series at one game at a time. That’s what I think.
choose: Baylor -4.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Michael Arinze Action Network’s Sports Handicapper. Follow him on X @Vegas_Analytics.
