The battle between the two Big Ten teams in the top 10 will take place Friday night with the No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers hosting the No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini.
At 11-2, Illinois remains perfect in conference play thanks to wins over Rutgers and Northwestern.
As for the Boilermakers (13-1), their only loss came on the road against Northwestern.
So even though Purdue is the top college basketball team in the nation, it lags behind the University of Illinois in the conference standings. A win over Illinois would give the Boilermakers the most wins in the Big Ten.
But Illinois poses a real threat even when trailing by double digits.
In this preview, we'll share why bettors shouldn't overlook the Fighting Illini in this matchup.
illinois analysis
The Illini return three starters and 60 percent of their minutes from last year's team, which failed to advance past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Coach Brad Underwood didn't like the loss, as he was trying to strengthen his lineup by bringing in experienced players from the transfer portal.
Coach Underwood added three senior transfers: forwards Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois), Quincy Guerrier (Oregon) and guard Justin Harmon (Utah Valley).
Domask (13.2 points per game) and Guerrier (11.0 points) rank second and third on the team scoring list, respectively, while Harmon ranks seventh with 6.4 points per game.
Offensively, the Illini rank 10th overall in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency metrics.
The additions of Domask, Guerrier and Harmon certainly boosted an Illinois team that finished 91st in scoring (74.3 ppg) last year, according to TeamRankings.
Illinois ranks 18th this season with an average of 83.9 points per game.
The Illini are incredibly balanced on both ends of the court. They are one of only six teams ranked in Pomeroy's top 20 in efficiency on both offense and defense.
Avid college basketball fans know that teams that fit this profile tend to be the favorites to win the national title.
So advanced indicators suggest that this Fighting Illini squad may not be too far removed from the Boilermakers.
purdue analysis
Despite winning a school-record 29 games last season, Purdue joined Virginia as the second No. 1 seed but lost in the first round to No. 16 (Fairleigh Dickinson).
The good news for Purdue fans is that Virginia won the national championship the following year.
It certainly helps the Boilermakers that they have the reigning Naismith Player of the Year in Zach Eady, who averaged 22.3 points, 12.9 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.5 assists last season.
The Toronto native was perhaps even more dominant this season, averaging 23.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 1.6 assists.
The Boilermakers also rank in Pomeroy's top 20 in offense and defense, and Eadie joins four returning starters.
Purdue added graduate transfer Lance Jones from Southern Illinois. Jones ranks fourth on the team with 10.8 points per game.
It's clear that Purdue will use Eady to develop their offense, but opposing teams will continue to double- and triple-team him, daring his teammates to break open looks.
Through 14 games, Eady's teammates answered that call. The Boilermakers rank 13th in 3-point percentage (38.9%) after finishing 277th (32.2%) last season.
However, Illinois, which limits opponents to just 31.1% shooting from the perimeter, could be up to the task.
Illinois vs. Purdue picks
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that the Illini's leading scorer, Terrence Shannon Jr., is currently suspended by the team.
Illinois didn't seem to miss him too much when it beat Northwestern on Tuesday, the same team that defeated Purdue 92-88 a little more than a month ago.
Domask led all scorers with 32 points, and Harmon had 20 points.
So he's the next addition to an Illinois team that has a deep rotation, with 11 players averaging nearly 10 minutes per game.
Illinois will need to use its entire deck to reduce fouls when defending Eadie.
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Even with Shannon out, I don't think the Fighting Illini will make an upset in this conference matchup. Purdue would be wise not to underestimate this Illinois team.
According to us Action Lab DatabaseThe Big Ten Dogs have a 22-11 record against the spread when they score 10 or more points in conference games.
After crunching the numbers, my model predicts Illinois to be close to a 9-point underdog.
I generally prefer a bit more of an advantage, but as long as you're locking in a double-digit point spread, I'm okay with going back here.
Pick: Illinois +10.5+ (-110, FanDuel)
