This is the best Saturday in college basketball this season. He has three matches in the top 10 on this card, with a few mid-sized matchups also standing out.
There are two things I’m focused on:
4th place Houston vs. 8th place Kansas
If Kansas being underdogs at home makes you do a double take, you’re not alone.
In the past 34 years, Kansas has only lost as an underdog on its home court twice — a narrow loss to No. 1 Oklahoma in February 1989 and a 4.5-point underdog to No. 2 Baylor in February 2021. Defeated.
They separated those two games, losing in overtime to OU’s dynamic duo of Mookie Blaylock and Stacey King, but defeated Baylor by 13 points in the game against Fog Allen.
So why are the Jayhawks behind in this standings? Injuries and defense.
The Jayhawks have become a three-man team over the past month, relying heavily on Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullough Jr. and freshman Johnny Furphy. But now McCullough has a bone bruise on his knee.
The Jayhawks wing is averaging nearly 20/6/5 on 47 percent from the field this season. Coach Bill Self has indicated that McCullough is scheduled to play Saturday, but he won’t be 100 percent back from his painful injury.
Kansas University’s defense has been sluggish since the beginning of the year. Since Jan. 1, KU has ranked 65th nationally, according to Bart Torbic’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. KU was in the top 20 for the first two months of the season. This is good news for Houston’s offense, which tends to stagnate in scoring.
As Kansas tries to break through Houston’s defense, all I can say is, “Good luck.” The Cougars’ defense is the highest-rated in the country by a wide margin. They lead the nation in effective field goal percentage, turn opponents over on 22 percent of their possessions (third) and rank third in 3-point shooting defense (28.3 percent).
If you want to find a decent team, you need to look at Texas Tech in 2019, who almost won the national championship, or the Kentucky Wildcats, who went 38-1 in 2015. That’s the tenuous atmosphere of this Houston defense.
Evan Miya’s ranking of the nation’s top 25 most influential defenders includes four Cougars, including the nation’s top two (Jamal Shehed and Javier Francis).
And finally, if they’re going to give the universities a loss on their home floor, they’ll need to quiet the crowd, and Houston has a special weapon in that department.
The Cougars lead the nation in kill shots (runs of 10-0 or more). So far this season, they have produced 27 of those but conceded just four. This is the highest margin of any team in the country and has helped Kelvin Sampson’s side crush their opponents’ will to win.
recommendation: Houston-2.
binghamton in vermont
The Catamounts have long been the class of the America East and have always bullied Binghamton as the bully of the conference. In his last 10 wins against this rival, Vermont has won by an average of 24 points per game.
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After a sleepy start to the season, the Cats bounced back with six straight wins, including three on the road. Manager John Becker credits the team’s depth for the turnaround.
Depth is more important than usual this season as the conference has changed to a Thursday and Saturday conference schedule. Nine Catamounts are playing at least 14 minutes per game for Becker, and eight players have led UVM in scoring over the past nine games.
Play this up to UVM -16.5.
recommendation: Vermont -14.
