UCLA hosts Iowa on Friday night in what should be an intriguing Big Ten battle.
It will be the first time these teams have met since the 1986 Rose Bowl, which UCLA won 45-28.
The Hawkeyes have won three of their last four games thanks to a resurgent offense, while the Bruins return to Los Angeles with two straight road wins.
Iowa vs. UCLA odds
(9 p.m. ET, FOX)
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| iowa | -6.5 (-110) | -245 | 44.5 or higher (-110) |
| University of California Los Angeles | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | Less than 44.5 (-110) |
When Iowa has the ball
In Tim Lester's first year as Iowa State's offensive coordinator, the Hawkeyes' offense has been one of the most improved teams in the country.
Iowa State, which allowed just 15.4 points per game, second-worst in the FBS last year, ranks 45th this year with 30.8 points per game.
The key will be the play of running back Caleb Johnson. He ranks second in the FBS with 1,279 rushing yards and first with 20 rushing touchdowns.
At quarterback, former Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan will make his second start for Iowa with Cade McNamara out with a concussion.
Sullivan has 37 dropbacks this year and no turnover-worthy plays, but he gives the Hawkeyes another dimension with his rushing ability. UCLA is ranked 131st nationally in pass rush grade by PFF, so Sullivan is expected to be a top talent.
Overall, the Hawkeyes should have success on the ground and in the air. UCLA ranks 116th in points per drive and 122nd in overall defensive success rate.
Weather is not expected to be a factor in this game, so expect Iowa's offense to continue to perform well.
When UCLA has the ball
UCLA was somewhat undervalued on the market after facing a grueling schedule earlier this season featuring Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Penn State.
The Bruins are 3-0 ATS in their last three games, including two road wins against Rutgers and Nebraska. Ethan Garbers is playing his best football this season — throwing for 602 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the past two games.
The Bruins' offensive line continues to have weaknesses, ranking below 100 nationally in both run and pass blocking, according to PFF.
As a result, the UCLA offense ranked 107th in early down EPA/play and 91st in average distance on third downs. That could cause problems for Garbers against an Iowa State defense that ranks 25th in pass rush and fifth in coverage.
UCLA lacks talent at the skill positions, with a running back gaining more than 50 yards in a game only once all season. Iowa State ranks 13th in run defense EPA, so it's hard to imagine that changing.
Freshman wide receiver Kwazi Gilmer has shown some breakthrough talent, catching a 48-yard touchdown last week against Nebraska, but this isn't an impressive wide receiver room.
Iowa vs UCLA predictions
If your market is offering props for college football players, I would consider sophomore tight end Zach Altworth's yards.
With starters Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrengga sidelined with injuries, Altworth showed great talent last week, catching three passes for 66 yards. He also seems to have good chemistry with Sullivan.
Do you want to bet on college football?
I expect Iowa to continue its offensive success under the Friday night lights and am leaning towards Iowa covering the spread.
But my favorite bet for this game is that Iowa's team total will be over 26.5 points. The Hawkeyes have scored 40 or more points in three of their last four games and are averaging 38.5 points per game this season.
The Hawkeyes are the road favorites, so bet on the offense continuing to put up points on Friday.
Best bet: Iowa State team totals at least 26.5 points (-115, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
