Last week, Kansas State allowed Tulane, a program experiencing major year-over-year upsets, to gain 8.8 yards per play, including 10.4 yards per dropback.
The Wave were impressive in a 34-27 home loss to the Wildcats, with nine explosive passing plays.
Naturally, I'm concerned about Kansas State's defense, especially Friday against Arizona.
Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan are the best quarterback-wide receiver pairing in college football, and they've already combined for 315 yards and four touchdowns on 12 receptions (26.3 yards per game) through the first two weeks.
Behind those two, Arizona ranks 17th nationally in EPA per dropback, and those two could slice through Kansas State.
I'm not a fan of Arizona's defense and Kansas State will be able to overwhelm their inexperienced front seven.
But Arizona's veteran secondary will be able to prevent KSU from running strong passing plays at will.
Kansas State may be a bit overrated, as they are 19-8 entering 2022, but needed a +22 turnover differential to get there.
Rotational luck always recedes.
Do you bet on college football?
Ultimately, I expect Arizona to throw the ball all over the field and Kansas State to try to keep up with a rush-heavy offense.
I don’t know if anyone can cover the touchdown spread with that game script.
Play: Arizona +7 (-105, DraftKings).
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, McGrath is an avid fan of the Vermont Catmounts, Miami Marlins and any team that loses at home. He lost the Miami Miracle in 2018 but bounced back four years later by betting Sandy Alcantara, a 40/1 long shot, to win the National League Cy Young Award.
