College Football Playoff Standings Preview
On Tuesday evening, ESPN highlighted the projected College Football Playoff rankings, offering a first look at which teams are currently in the playoffs. Of course, there’s still a lot of football left to play, but this gives us a snapshot of where teams stand now and what they might need to do moving forward to secure a playoff spot.
Just a heads up, this bracket is set to automatically include the top five conference champions, with the top four getting first-round byes. From there, teams will be listed according to their rankings to finalize the bracket. Here’s how things are shaping up.
At the moment, Indiana (B1G), Texas A&M (SEC), BYU (Big 12), Virginia (ACC), and Memphis (AAC) are set to receive automatic bids. Interestingly, Memphis is poised to make the playoffs even without being ranked.
Generally speaking, the rankings seem fair on the whole, though there are definitely a few placements that raise eyebrows.
For instance, it’s a bit frustrating for Texas A&M to be sitting at third instead of first. According to our analysis, they really should be at the top. They boast the best strength of record (SOR) nationally and a solid strength of schedule (SOS) ranking at 15.
However, A&M lacks an incredible record when it comes to testing vision. In past seasons, this didn’t seem to matter much, but this time around, the committee appears to be leaning more on their intuition about teams rather than just focusing on raw stats.
This is just the beginning, though. There’s plenty of football ahead, and Texas A&M still has significant games against Missouri State and Texas. Their future in these rankings—whether they stay at No. 3, climb to No. 1, or drop altogether—will likely hinge on those match-ups.
It’s a bit surprising to see Notre Dame ranked at 10th, especially considering they were viewed as a bubble team. Their early-season struggles, specifically losses to Miami and Texas A&M, now seem far behind them, as they’ve shown considerable improvement since.
The loss to Miami was particularly surprising. It’s curious to see the committee placing so much faith in Notre Dame, choosing to overlook their 15th place SOR and 23rd place SOS this season. Based on the numbers, they should’ve been on the bubble, yet they’ve climbed higher than expected.
Timing plays a big role in the College Football Playoff rankings.
If this initial poll had been released a week earlier, Georgia Tech might have cracked the top 12. Following their victory over Duke, the Yellow Jackets had a No. 7 ranking in the AP Top 25, only to drop to No. 8 after beating Syracuse.
However, a recent heartbreaking loss to North Carolina State—where they allowed 48 points—likely knocked them down further than they had anticipated.
Nonetheless, Georgia Tech still has chances to improve their standing. They are not just looking forward to the annual rivalry game against Georgia, but they are also on track for the ACC Championship Game, presenting another opportunity to make a strong case to the committee.
While the current ranking might not reflect their expectations, there are still upcoming games that could enhance their resume.
Conversely, Texas Tech is another team to watch, but the question remains: is No. 9 a bit too ambitious for the Red Raiders? They’ve secured some impressive wins, though they’ve faced less formidable opponents. Their SOS is ranked at No. 58 nationally, which points to an easier path so far.
Their victory over Utah has been a significant boost, especially since they dropped a game to Arizona State that many felt they should have won. The most telling game for Texas Tech will be this weekend against BYU. How they perform could be pivotal for their future.
