College Football Playoff Predictor

The Allstate Playoff Predictor breaks down which teams have the best chance to make this season’s College Football Playoff.

10/31/2022

We are only a month away from conference championship weekend. Think you know who will be the last four standing? See for yourself.

For the past eight years, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has been painting a week-to-week picture of which teams have a realistic chance to be one of the four in the College Football Playoff, and overall, it has been pretty accurate, if we do say so ourselves. All eight champions were given at least a 65% chance to make the CFP before their championship season even began.

Using that stat and the criteria below to set the table, we give you the chance to pick a team and decide how its season will pan out. According to your choices, the Allstate Playoff Predictor will determine how likely that team is to be one of the four CFP semifinalists.

Teams with less than a 2% chance to make the CFP are not included.

Choose one team

These are the 11 teams with the highest-percent chance to make the CFP, ordered from most to least likely.

How does {selected-team} finish the remainder of the regular season?

No team has ever made it to the playoff with more than one loss. Two-loss teams have an outside chance, but three or more losses all but exclude a team from the playoff, so that option isn’t on the table.



Which {team-value} does {selected-team} lose to?

The three toughest opponents on the schedule are listed here with the percentage chance {selected-team} wins. Choose {team-count}.

Does {selected-team} win its conference title game?

The College Football Playoff committee greatly values conference championships (27 of 32 CFP selections have been conference champs), but it’s not a requirement.



{selected-team}’s Chances

If the season plays out exactly as you’ve selected, the Allstate Playoff Predictor says this is your postseason outlook.

Sorry, this scenario either isn’t possible or did not play out in enough of the 200,000 simulations run by the Allstate Playoff Predictor to be analyzed.

These are your team’s chances to win every game left on its schedule, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.



Week 10 games that matter to the CFP race

Tennessee-Georgia and Alabama-LSU meet with a ton at stake both in the SEC and in the overall playoff picture.

Edited by Matt Eisenberg

Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Heather Donahue, Jarret Gabel, Alecia Hamm, Lori Higginbotham and Sarah Pezzullo.

ESPN Analytics: Matt Morris, Lauren Poe and Mitchell Wesson.


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