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After eight weeks of college football chaos, the first CFP rankings of the season were never likely to be straightforward. The one thing many expected was Miami at No. 1, even after a tough game against North Carolina.
Now the Hurricanes are set to face No. 11 Notre Dame this weekend, and the game suddenly feels close to an elimination matchup for the Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame fans don’t need to panic just yet. There’s still time for the rankings to shift. But it’s fair to feel uneasy about Saturday: the committee’s placement suggests Marcus Freeman’s team may need to beat No. 1 Miami to keep its playoff hopes firmly in its own hands. Otherwise, it could be relying on other teams to lose.
This is the final season of the 12-team playoff format before it expands to 24 teams next year, as ESPN and the CFP work out a new television agreement.
The SEC will be pleased with its early showing. Georgia landed at No. 2, while Alabama is fifth and Kentucky sixth. Those positions give the conference some breathing room if either Alabama or Kentucky takes another loss.
If Kentucky beats No. 13 Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend, it may be able to absorb another defeat and still make the playoff. Still, it’s hard to ignore that Alabama is ranked eight places ahead of Tennessee, despite losing to the Vols last month.
CFP chairman Hunter Yurachek said the committee wasn’t weighing that head-to-head result at this stage because of how the two teams are placed in the overall ranking process.
No. 7 Texas is the only team with three wins over ranked opponents. Kentucky, BYU, Alabama, Ole Miss and Ohio State are among the teams with two.
Undefeated UCLA is ranked eighth, just behind No. 4 Indiana. Indiana held on against Minnesota last weekend, but the committee’s placement of the Hoosiers may raise questions given their schedule.
The Big Ten could end up with only two playoff teams, particularly if No. 12 Ohio State can’t settle in without Julian Sayin. I think the Buckeyes are in a reasonable spot in the rankings, though the committee said it didn’t compare them directly with other teams based on head-to-head results because they weren’t in the same group of teams under consideration.
Ohio State also looked unlike itself against Southern California. The Buckeyes have time to show that performance was an outlier, and Yurachek pointed to their defense when explaining the committee’s view of the team.
Indiana, meanwhile, has no ranked wins so far. Four of its five victories against power-conference opponents have been by a single score, which makes its fourth-place ranking a little difficult to understand.
USC is ranked No. 20, and a strong finish could help the Trojans’ case. It might also limit how far Indiana falls if the Hoosiers lose at home to Lincoln Riley’s team next week.
The Big 12’s picture is just as unsettled. No. 3 Utah leads the conference in the rankings, but No. 9 BYU could reshape the playoff race when the teams meet in Saturday’s Holy War.
The conference could potentially send as many teams to the playoff as the Big Ten, though there’s still a month of regular-season games to play. For the Big 12 to get three teams in, BYU would probably need to win out, and No. 15 Texas Tech would likely need to finish unbeaten in the regular season. Utah, in turn, would probably have to beat BYU in the conference championship game.
That outcome could give BYU a strong case for a place in the final rankings, while Utah would claim the conference’s automatic bid. Texas Tech could also be in contention with just one loss.
There’s usually plenty to criticize in the committee’s decisions, but perhaps this season calls for a little patience. The results over the past eight weeks have made the job unusually difficult.
Yurachek said the committee expects substantial movement throughout the top 25 and described the coming decisions as a challenge. He also called this weekend a major one for college football.
There will always be details to argue over, but this season has shown how quickly a Saturday can turn the rankings upside down. Is there a truly elite team in the country? We should have a better idea over the next month.
Based on the rankings released November 3, the projected first-round matchups on campus would be:
- No. 12 Ohio State at No. 5 Alabama
- No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Kentucky
- No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Texas
- No. 9 BYU at No. 8 UCLA
The projected quarterfinal matchups would be:
- No. 1 Miami against the winner of No. 8 UCLA and No. 9 BYU
- No. 2 Georgia against the winner of No. 7 Texas and No. 10 Ole Miss
- No. 3 Utah against the winner of No. 6 Kentucky and No. 11 Notre Dame
- No. 4 Indiana against the winner of No. 5 Alabama and No. 12 Ohio State
November looks set to bring plenty of nerves and more than a few surprises. The first rankings make one thing clear for Notre Dame: if the Irish want to spend December preparing for the playoff, beating Miami this weekend would go a long way.
