No team in college football is as roller coaster as the LSU Tigers (3-1).
Brian Kelly's team is exactly where you'd expect it to be, currently ranked 14th (it was ranked 13th in the Associated Press preseason poll), but the path to get there has been far from simple. It wasn't something.
LSU lost the opening game against No. 12 USC on a last-minute touchdown, but then bounced back with wins over Nicholls State, South Carolina and UCLA.
You might think this three-game winning streak will get them back on track and lead to another win this Saturday against South Alabama in Death Valley, but the numbers suggest there's a fine line for the Bayou Bengals. There are some red flags. tiger.
Going into the season, it was clear that LSU was not going to be a defensive force.
The Tigers ranked 109th in yards per play allowed and 81st in points allowed per game in 2023, but 2024 first-round draft picks Jaden Daniels, Malik Nabors and Bryan -A prolific offense led by Thomas Jr. helped them finish with 10 wins and 3 losses.
Having to outscore a defense's weaknesses is never ideal, but when you have three first-round picks leading the way, including a Heisman winner, it becomes a much more manageable puzzle. .
And while LSU's offense is still great, it's understandably going to take a bit of a step back in 2024.
That means there's pressure on the defense to improve, but at least that hasn't happened yet.
Through four games, LSU ranks 103rd in yards allowed per play and 106th in plays blocked of 10 yards or more.
The Tigers have given up 21 or more points in three of their four games, including the game against Nicholls State.
The most concerning effort came in a very fortunate 36-33 win at South Carolina. The Tigers allowed 243 yards inside their own territory, but were bailed out by questionable officiating.
Even the most die-hard LSU supporter will tell you the Bayou Bengals were lucky to win that game.
South Carolina is certainly a much better team than South Alabama, but it wouldn't be a shock to see LSU have similar issues against the Jaguars on Saturday.
South Alabama's numbers should be taken with caution, but this certainly looks like a potent offense as they scored 87 points against an FCS school two weeks ago.
The Jaguars defeated Appalachian State 48-10 on the road and scored 38 points in a loss to North Texas.
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Led by running back Fluff Boswell, this team can score in the rush and is rated as a top-10 offense in terms of explosiveness.
We usually like to back ugly underdogs who try to spoil the game and make the clock run forward, but in this case we're hanging out with LSU and an offense that could actually scare Kelly. We are supporting.
It might be a step too far to have South Alabama, a 21-point underdog, pull off an upset, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to consider other options, like putting the Jaguars on the first-half prize line.
Recommendation: South Alabama +21 (-112, DraftKings)
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