On Saturday, No. 18-ranked Michigan will host No. 11-ranked USC in a key Big Ten Conference matchup between the top ranked teams.
The Wolverines are off to a shaky start and have struggled to maintain consistency.
Meanwhile, the Trojans will be well-rested after having a bye week following season-opening wins over Louisiana State and Utah State.
What's the value in this fascinating matchup? Let's find out.
When USC had the ball
Miller Moss took over as quarterback at USC after Caleb Williams was selected first overall in the NFL Draft. He's waited years for this opportunity and has shown great poise despite his limited experience.
Lincoln Riley has always praised Moss for his ability to stay calm under pressure and not turn the ball over, and according to PFF, Moss has only committed one turnover-worthy play in two starts.
The Trojans are loaded with pass-catching talent, led by sophomore Zachariah Branch, who is a big-play prospect. Tight end Lake McCrea led the team with nine catches for 137 yards, while Makai Lemon and Jakobi Lane each had a touchdown.
Michigan's defense is loaded with talent, including cornerback Will Johnson and defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, but the team's metrics are lacking in some key areas: Michigan doesn't rank in the top 100 in defensive disruptions and is 85th in EPA per dropback.
In Weeks 1 and 2, Fresno State's Mikey Keene and Texas' Quinn Ewers combined to complete 12 of 20 passes 10 or more yards downfield. Michigan is blitzing about 20 percent more this year than it did last, which has resulted in more coverage blunders on the back end.
Moss is ranked fourth in PFF passing grade against blitzes this season and can exploit the Wolverines defense with some explosive plays.
When Michigan has the ball
After Davis Warren was intercepted three times against Arkansas State, the Wolverines announced they would start with Alex Orji under center this week.
At 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, Orji is a quality athlete who appeared on Bruce Feldman's popular Freaks List. He has much more potential on the rushing side of things, and that should come in handy here.
New defensive coordinator Danton Lin has added a bit of much-needed fundamental integrity and consistency to USC's defense, but the Trojans are still allowing 5.94 yards per rush, good for 95th in the country, and Karel Mullings is allowing 5.14 yards after contact per attempt, ranking seventh out of 76 qualified running backs.
Keep an eye on Colston Loveland’s situation with the Wolverines.
The tight end, a first-team All-Big Ten Conference selection, missed last week's game, but head coach Sherone Moore said Loveland is “feeling positive” heading into Saturday.
USC vs. Michigan Predictions
I expect both teams' offenses to have a decisive advantage in this match, which should be a much higher scoring affair than you might expect. The odds started at 52.5 but quickly dropped to 44.
Moss should be able to handle Michigan blitzes and get the ball to USC's cadre of weapons, while adding Orji to the lineup should pay dividends against a run defense that still looks shaky.
Do you bet on college football?
The key number for most game totals is 45, but as of this writing, they are below that number.
I would bet the over to 47 points.
Best bet: 44 or more points (-111, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post, earning 84.5 units across the two sports with an ROI of 6.27%.
