Last week, I advocated adding UC Irvine to my college baseball futures portfolio, with the veteran Antetots still being found in the 60/1 range ahead of Selection Monday.
Dallas Baptist, another brave underdog, is considered similarly rated. The Patriots have a commanding ace in 6-foot-6 Ryan Johnson, an imposing right-hander who is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the country, destroying 13.45 batters per nine innings.
While it’s nice to have a few dark horses on the dance card, the reality is that the cream generally rises to the top.
Six of the last seven national champions were ranked in the top 15 heading into the postseason.
So to balance out the two underdogs, I’ll bet on a true baseball powerhouse, Georgia, to win at 25/1 (DraftKings).
The Duggs have weathered a tough SEC campaign, winning 17 of 30 conference games and establishing home-field advantage (29-5), which should help them avoid stepping on any landmines in next weekend’s regional tournament in Athens.
Their dynamic lineup ranks in the top five in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and they’ve only gotten better as the season has progressed, and that’s true for ace Colten Smith.
Smith has shone brightly over the past two months, recording double-digit strikeouts in three of his last seven starts, including 11 in a road game against Texas A&M.
Finally, the statistic I consider gold plated in college baseball, road RPI, is entirely in the Duggs’ favor: They’re third in their division, which basically means they won’t budge if they have to win on the road in the Super Regionals.
This is Wes Johnson’s first year as Georgia’s head coach, but his influence is visible all over this team, especially the pitching staff.
Johnson emerged as a pitching coach at Dallas Baptist, Mississippi State and Arkansas in the mid-2010s, a pioneer of advanced statistics who impressed enough people to receive a highly unusual offer.
The Minnesota Twins recruited him straight out of college to be their pitching coach, a move that helped the struggling Twins immensely and gave Johnson a major boost in his career.
When he arrived, the Twins were coming off a losing season in which their pitching staff was hit hard (22nd in team ERA). In Johnson’s first year as manager, the staff improved to ninth in ERA, then fourth the following season.
Johnson seems to be working his magic by putting Smith at the top of the starting rotation, and the sophomore’s low projected FIP suggests he’s pitching better than his ERA would suggest.
He has a versatile repertoire that effectively uses a cutter, slider, fastball, changeup and 12-6 curveball, making him the pitcher you want to rely on in Omaha.
If a rising star like Smith isn’t convincing, the Duggs also have reigning SEC Player of the Year Charlie Condon.
The redshirt sophomore is one of the most intimidating hitters we’ve seen in college baseball in a long time, batting .443 with a Division I-leading 35 home runs.
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That’s the most in a regular season since 2012, when the NCAA switched to BBCOR bats for safety reasons (slower ball velocity).
The only thing that bothers me here is Georgia’s relief pitchers. Georgia baseball writer Mark Weiser said this recently in a sports talk with Bobby Hebert: [UGA] Last weekend against Florida, the bullpen looked like a clear weakness.
If Johnson can rebuild the bullpen, especially closer Brian Zeldin, this team could have a big run in Omaha.
Bet: Georgia to win the College World Series (25/1, DraftKings)
