Republicans are increasingly uneasy about the upcoming special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, an area that President Trump won by a significant 22 points last year.
Traditionally, Republicans have dominated congressional elections, but recent polling has raised alarm bells, suggesting an upset could shrink their House majority to a precarious zero votes.
“I’m quite concerned. This is an off-year election, right after Thanksgiving. A lot of Republicans might be away. And will they actually turn out on Election Day?” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who represents the nearby 2nd District, voiced his worries.
“The margin is razor-thin.”
The stakes have been heightened by the recent retirement announcement of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), known for her fiery rhetoric.
If Democrats clinch a win in Tennessee’s 7th District, and then secure the two seats vacated in special elections, it could push the Republican House majority to a narrow 218-216. Such a scenario would leave Republicans with little room for defection on partisan issues. Over the past year, they have relied on at least one member’s support, often from libertarian-leaning Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Concerns are also growing that the Republican majority might vanish ahead of the midterm elections if more members retire early.
Adding to the tension is a recent survey from Emerson College Poll and The Hill, showing the race in a dead heat, with Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftin Behn—often referred to as “Tennessee’s AOC”—by only 48% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.
“I think the polls might be a bit misleading. Older voters in Tennessee seem to go to the polls, and they generally lean more conservative,” Burchett remarked.
Nonetheless, Burchett, who has campaigned with Van Epps, cautioned Republicans to be on alert for potential risks.
“If trouble is brewing, that should serve as a serious warning,” he stated. “Even if we win, the implications could be quite severe.”
This special election follows a significant Democratic success in recent year-end elections, especially evident in New Jersey, where polls didn’t accurately reflect Republican support in the gubernatorial race.
Earlier this month, former Vice President Kamala Harris caused a stir with a clumsy endorsement of Behn, indicating that some within the Democratic Party fear the election’s outcome could be pivotal.
When asked about potential concerns, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesperson Riley Richardson confidently told reporters, “Matt Van Epps will be a congressman.”
Meanwhile, some left-leaning operatives privately express skepticism regarding Behn’s chances, suggesting that the fear tactics from Republicans are merely attempts to boost turnout in a district expected to see strong Democratic performance.
“Republicans have invested over $1.5 million into this Trump +22 district in a last-ditch effort to prevent Democratic overperformance. It highlights what we already suspect—Republicans may lose the House majority next year,” noted a national Democratic strategist involved in House races.
This strategist mentioned particular concern about an upcoming special election in Florida, where Republican Rep. Randy Fine won by around 14 percentage points despite challenges during the campaign.
Trump has clearly been rattled by the GOP’s chances in the special election, having retracted his support for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as ambassador to the United Nations.
The seat is being contested following Rep. Mark Green’s resignation in July. Green had been a significant figure, leading the House Homeland Security Committee and winning re-election last year by over 21 points.
Van Epps, previously the head of the Tennessee Department of General Services, is working to emphasize his opponent’s past controversial remarks. Behn had previously voiced strong criticisms of Nashville and even referred to Tennessee as a “racist state.”
In 2020, during nationwide protests following George Floyd’s death, Behn notably tweeted about the justification of burning police stations, reflecting a past that her current campaign seems eager to distance itself from.
Behn has been serving in the Tennessee State Assembly since 2023 but has downplayed her earlier statements about policing when challenged on social media.
“She’s an extremist,” Burchett asserted. “Now she won’t even acknowledge the things she said regarding policing, military, and borders.”
