Political Shift in Spain’s Government

A recent survey indicates that Spain’s scandal-ridden Socialist Party-led government might fall to the opposing centre-right Popular Party and VOX Populists if elections were held today. There’s a palpable sense of political change in Madrid, as reported by ABC. The latest GAD3 poll suggests that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s coalition is losing traction, primarily due to ongoing scandals involving the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE).

If elections were held now, the PSOE would secure around 107 seats, significantly fewer than the 176 required for a majority and less than the 121 seats won in the 2023 elections.

The centre-right Popular Party (PP), led by Alberto Nuñez Feijó, is projected to have 141 members, an increase from the 137 it achieved three years ago. Interestingly, the support for Santiago Abascal’s VOX party is anticipated to nearly double, rising from 33 to 60 seats in Congress.

This shift would grant the right-wing parties a combined total of 201 seats, effectively blocking Prime Minister Sánchez from reestablishing a minority government in alliance with far-left or separatist parties. In the previous elections, Sánchez’s party had finished second to the PP.

However, forming a coalition hinges on overcoming differences between Feijó and Abascal. While both parties have established power-sharing frameworks at regional levels, they have yet to cooperate nationally.

Feijó has suggested that VOX positions itself as a “more radical right” party, but they haven’t implemented measures, like the sanitary cordons other more mainstream centre-right parties have adopted against populist movements. Despite this, PP leaders continue to express a preference to govern independently of VOX.

There’s been a back-and-forth criticism regarding Feijó’s handling of divisive topics like immigration and environmental issues. Winning might smooth over such issues, but Feijó may also consider mirroring Sánchez’s approach and forming a minority government with support from right-wing separatist factions like the Junts pro-Catalan independence party.

This political turmoil adds more woes for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose Socialist Workers’ Party faces multiple scandals. Recently, former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was charged with serious crimes, triggering ongoing investigations into influence peddling and money laundering involving vast sums of money.

Complicating the situation, a police raid occurred at the Socialist Party’s headquarters amid claims that the government was attempting to obstruct judicial proceedings against it. Additionally, there are allegations that Sánchez’s wife leveraged her position to secure favorable government contracts for those close to her.

The government has received harsh criticism for its unilateral decision to grant amnesty to a large number of illegal immigrants, despite the prevailing public sentiment viewing illegal immigration as a major concern. Internationally, Sánchez’s administration faces potential backlash from the United States, especially after barring American military assets from accessing a base due to conflicts with Iran, raising concerns about Spain’s NATO membership. Moreover, the European Union is considering sanctions over accusations of misappropriating COVID-19 subsidies for national welfare projects.