One of the biggest sporting events on the calendar, the Wimbledon Championships, kicks off on Monday with the men’s draw offering prime conditions for bettors.
Jannik Sinner (+160) is the favorite to win his first Wimbledon title, but defending champion Carlos Alcaraz (+175) and a healthy Novak Djokovic (+400) are also tied for the top spot.
While these three are in a class of their own, the market is also backing other contenders, including Hubert Hurkacz (11/1), Alexander Zverev (10/1), Jack Draper (16/1) and Alex de Minaur (20/1).
While the winner is overwhelmingly likely to come from the top of the odds, there are several potential contenders, including some big names who are not on the radar, who could outperform the odds.
Wimbledon 2024 Predictions
Daniil Medvedev (12/1, BetMGM)
It’s been a quiet year for Daniil Medvedev by his lofty standards. The 28-year-old Russian started well, finishing runner-up at the Australian Open and then again at Indian Wells, but he’s yet to win a trophy this season and hasn’t had any notable clay-court success, so the market has ignored him and drifted towards trendier players like Jack Draper, Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul.
That’s pretty strange.
Medvedev may not be having his best year, but he is ranked No. 5 in the world and a year removed from reaching the Wimbledon semifinals, dispelling any notion that his unique style of play would never work on the grass courts of the All England Club.
Moreover, his mediocre performances on clay are nothing new. Medvedev always slumps in the middle of the season and then picks up near the end. That’s just how he is.
Medvedev is in the quarterfinals with Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is in a tough group and an exit before the quarterfinals is not impossible.
This is a great betting opportunity.
Andrey Rublev (50/1, DraftKings)
Like his compatriot Medvedev, Andrey Rublev has been overlooked in the betting markets for a number of reasons, the most obvious being the 26-year-old’s 0-10 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals (0-1 at Wimbledon).
Until Rublev overcomes that barrier, he will remain the doubter of bettors and pundits alike.
Another reason for Rublev’s ranking fluctuations is that he’s had an unusually inconsistent season. Though generally considered one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, Rublev has struggled a bit more recently, reaching just one final this season and coming off an unceremonious exit in the round of 32 at Halle, his only grass-court tournament of the season.
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But what cannot be underestimated here is that Rublev has drawn an incredible draw: the only real threat in his immediate group is Lorenzo Musetti, and his most likely opponent in the quarterfinals is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has his own weaknesses in this tournament.
Rublev’s mediocre form may be a concern, but his first two opponents should offer little resistance, so in theory he should have time to find his level before the going gets tough.
Sometimes it’s best not to overthink things when placing a bet, and that’s certainly the case when you take the world number six ranked player at 50/1 in the easiest draw section.
