Monday’s NBA slate has several appealing matchups. Luka Doncic heads to Atlanta, where his draft-night trade still gives the game an added storyline, while Denver and Houston meet in a clash between two of the league’s top teams. With so many Nuggets listed as injured, though, I’m looking elsewhere for tonight’s pick: Indiana against Dallas.
Indiana reached Game 7 of the NBA Finals two seasons ago before losing to Oklahoma City. Tyrese Haliburton suffered a torn Achilles during that series, and the Pacers struggled through much of the following season without him. He’s back this year, but Indiana is 3-7 overall and 3-2 on the road.
Haliburton will miss this game with a hamstring injury, and T.J. McConnell is also questionable with a hamstring problem. That’s a tough situation for a team already trying to find its footing. Winning without a point guard is hard, and the Pacers have dropped four of their last five. They do have the benefit of extra rest tonight, at least.
Dallas is further removed from its Finals defeat, and the roster has changed considerably. The Mavericks traded Doncic in a move that still seems baffling to me. They did, however, land Cooper Flagg, who has looked excellent early in his career. He may be one of the most valuable young players in the league, though that’s not the same as saying he’s already one of its best players.
The Mavericks are 6-4, with every win coming at home. They’re playing their third game in four nights and are on the second night of a back-to-back, but they’ve handled their last two opponents comfortably: a 12-point win over Utah followed by a near-40-point victory over Brooklyn. Dallas has generally taken care of weaker teams. Its losses came against San Antonio twice, Houston and Sacramento; that Sacramento result is the one that stands out.
Dallas looks like the stronger team, though availability is worth watching. Kyrie Irving and Flagg are expected to play, and the Mavericks appear likely to have most of their roster available. They also have a deeper bench than Indiana. Dallas won the teams’ last meeting by 16, in a game that included a hard foul on Flagg. That could add a little extra edge tonight. With several things working in the Mavericks’ favor, I’ll take Dallas to cover the 3.5-point spread.
