Crude oil futures rose slightly on Thursday after a fourth straight day of declines, as concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East receded and a glut looms in the market next year.
While Israel has so far refrained from retaliating against Iran, the situation “could change in an instant,” said Aditya Saraswat, director of Middle East research at Rystad Energy.
“In a widespread regional war scenario, the Iran-Israel conflict could severely impact gas exports and lead to delays in oil development projects,” Saraswat said in a note on Thursday.
Thursday's energy prices are:
- west texas intermediate November contract: $70.40 per barrel, up 1 cent (0.01%). Since the beginning of the year, U.S. crude oil prices have fallen nearly 2%.
- brent December contract: $74.24 per barrel, up 2 cents (0.03%). Year-to-date, global benchmarks are down more than 3%.
- RBOB gasoline November contract: down 0.22% to $2.0358 per gallon. Gasoline prices have fallen more than 3% since the beginning of the year.
- natural gas November contract: $2.374 per 1,000 cubic feet, up 0.3%. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have fallen by more than 5%.
Israel has reportedly told the US that it will refrain from attacking Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for the Islamic Republic's October 1 ballistic missile attack. Oil markets plunged on Tuesday after reports that Israel would limit its attacks to Iranian military targets.
But an attack on the oil facilities could disrupt Iran's 1.4 million barrels per day production, Saraswat said. A full-scale war could result in Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, putting 12 million barrels of oil a day at risk and causing “prices to rise sharply,” analysts said.
