October baseball has a unique way of rekindling old rivalries, and this time, the location has shifted. Just a year after the Chicago Cubs knocked out the San Diego Padres in the 2025 National League Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field, these two teams are set to face off again on Tuesday night at Petco Park.
This season, the Cubs dominated their encounters, winning five out of six games against the Padres, with a memorable blowout 23-3 victory in July. They come into this matchup with one of the league’s top offenses, impressive defensive skills, and what many consider to be the probable National League MVP, Pete Crow-Armstrong.
That said, July is behind us, and the Padres have gained momentum as the season neared its end. Over the final two months, they clinched the best record in baseball, finishing 41-18 in their last 59 games, which earned them the privilege of hosting this rematch.
The California Post’s perspective on the season’s matchup goes like this:
Cubs Offense vs. Padres Pitching
Advantage: Padres
The Cubs can certainly hit, leading the majors in OPS and ranking first in the National League for home runs. With Crow-Armstrong showcasing both defensive prowess and offensive explosiveness, and Alex Bregman performing exceptionally well—even making a stunning return to form after an injury—the Cubs have a potent lineup. He went 4-for-4 with two home runs in their last game of the regular season.
However, the Padres have a secret weapon—an outstanding bullpen, which is crucial in the postseason. When you have three relievers who can overwhelm hitters, it can change the game’s complexion dramatically.
One concern for the Padres is their starting pitching; Michael King is slated to pitch Game 1 after finishing the season with a solid 3.21 ERA. They just need him to maintain the lead for six innings before handing the ball over to their dominant relievers.
The Cubs’ strategy is straightforward: they’ll need to wear down the Padres’ starter and hope to force him out of the game before the relievers come into play.
Padres Offense vs. Cubs Pitching
Advantage: Padres
As the Padres’ offensive capabilities surged, the Cubs’ starting pitching began to falter. Kevin Gausman, a recent addition from the Toronto Blue Jays, is currently dealing with an injury to his non-pitching shoulder, casting doubt on his availability. Although Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga provide some stability, the Cubs’ ace advantage lies in their exceptional defense, which should instill confidence in their pitching staff as the series unfolds.
Four Keys to the Series
1. Embrace “Miller Time!”
The Cubs’ nightmare scenario involves entering the ninth inning trailing. Mason Miller, known for his barely-hittable stuff, could become a huge hurdle in such a situation. The Cubs have had their share of success against him previously, but relying on that history may not be wise.
2. PCA Needs to Shine
Last year’s postseason performance from Crow-Armstrong was underwhelming—with a .185 batting average and no extra-base hits. This season, he’s evolved into a potential MVP, and his ability to perform in the playoffs will be critical for the Cubs’ hopes.
3. Forget the Regular Season
While the Cubs can take some confidence from their regular season success against the Padres, they should tread carefully. History shows that regular-season dominance doesn’t always carry over to the postseason.
The Padres entering this matchup are not the same team the Cubs faced earlier. Their lineup is significantly stronger now, and they’re performing at their peak.
4. Home Field Advantage
This October sees a considerable shift: last year, San Diego had to steal a win at Wrigley, while now Chicago must contend with the raucous fans at Petco Park. Home field advantage in a three-game series can make a difference—familiarity and the crowd’s energy can influence outcomes more than one might expect.
Prediction:
While the Cubs have the talent to win this series, the Padres are coming in hot, boasting a stronger bullpen and the benefit of home field. Chicago might have taken the series in three games last year, but this time, it seems to favor San Diego.
Prediction: Padres in three
