Former Governor Andrew Cuomo is maintaining a significant lead heading into the Democratic mayoral primary next month. However, his competitor, Zoran Mamdani, appears to have an advantage among younger voters, particularly those under 45.
According to a recent poll conducted by Marist University Institute of Public Opinion, Cuomo is supported by 37% of Democratic voters, while Mamdani garners 18%. Lee Milingoff, a pollster at Marist, commented, “Cuomo seems to be on a successful path.” He added that “someone will have to beat him.”
While the slate of candidates could potentially shift as voting approaches—early voting starts on June 14 before the primary on June 24—many candidates still have a chance to resonate with voters. The poll indicated that about 9% of respondents support council chair Adrienne Adams, 8% back Mayor Brad Lander, and 4% opt for former City Comptroller Scott Stringer. Brooklyn Senator Zellner Miley trails with 3%, followed by Queens Senator Jessica Ramos at 2% and Whitney Tilson at just 1%. Additionally, around 17% of Democratic voters remain undecided.
If you factor out the undecided voters, Cuomo’s initial support jumps to 44%, reaching over 53% by the fifth round in a simulated ranked-choice voting process, defeating Mamdani by a margin of 60% to 40% when other candidates are eliminated.
Cuomo’s appeal is particularly strong among older Democratic voters, almost half of whom indicate support for him. Older demographics typically have higher voter turnout compared to younger individuals. Mamdani, on the other hand, leads with voters under 45, securing nearly half of those identifying as “very liberal,” while Cuomo dominates among liberals, moderates, and even conservatives.
Support among racial demographics also shows distinctions; about half of Black voters favor Cuomo, while 41% of Latino voters support him, nearly doubling Mamdani’s 20%. One in seven African Americans back Adrienne Adams. Jewish voters are somewhat more divided: 26% support Cuomo, while 17% back Lander and 14% support Mamdani, with no clear favor for Mayor Ayke Adams.
Cuomo appears to have a solid footing in the Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island, where half of Democrats back him. The former governor’s edge in Manhattan is narrower, and polling in Brooklyn indicates a split in support, with each major candidate capturing 25% of the vote there.
Should Cuomo secure a major victory, it would mark a surprising comeback after his 2021 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. Interestingly, 81% of leading Democratic voters believe New York City is moving in the wrong direction, with only 19% feeling it’s on the right track.
Current Mayor Eric Adams is expected to exit the Democratic primary, opting instead to run for reelection through an independent line. Republican Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, and lawyer Jim Walden are also among the candidates in the mayoral race.
The Marist College survey offers a glimpse into the current voter sentiment, as early voting for the primary will take place from June 14 to 22.
