Even amidst ongoing negotiations and labor disputes between the WNBA and its players, the league is set to proceed with the WNBA Draft Lottery on Sunday, November 23. It’ll be aired on ESPN starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, showcasing the five teams currently in the lottery drawing their draft positions for 2026.
Any teams that missed out on the playoffs last season can also join in on the lottery action. This year, the WNBA stuck with an eight-team playoff format while expanding to 13 teams, which means there are five teams in the draw. It’s worth noting, also, that this will be the only year with this five-team setup, as the league is poised to grow to 15 teams in 2026. Next season, seven teams will participate in the lottery.
The odds for the draft are based on team performances over the last two seasons. That means the team with the least success stands the best chance of snagging the top pick. Much like the NBA, the draft process involves assigning teams a number of four-digit combinations according to their likelihood of finishing first. The higher your odds, the more combinations you get. Using a lottery ball method, the league draws these four-digit numbers, and the team linked with that set wins the No. 1 pick. There’s also a tie for the No. 2 pick, while the remaining picks, from No. 3 to No. 5, depend on the teams’ performances ranked from worst to best over the last two seasons.
This year has a unique twist. The initial two picks after the lottery will go to the expansion teams: Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire. Subsequently, the rest of the first-round picks will be based on the standing results of the other teams from the season.
Here’s a rundown of the teams with the best chances of appearing in the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery:
Dallas Wings (42% chance for 1st pick)
The Dallas Wings recorded a 19-65 performance over the last two seasons, making them favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick for the second consecutive year. This isn’t particularly surprising; just like the Indiana Fever, which picked Aliyah Boston and Kaitlyn Clark first in 2023 and 2024, the Wings are on a similar trajectory. The Las Vegas Aces also had their share of success, with first overall picks from 2017 to 2019.
The Wings secured the No. 1 pick last year when they chose Paige Bueckers from UW. Their previous top pick was in 2021 when they drafted Charlie Collier, who is currently playing overseas.
Minnesota Lynx, via Chicago Sky (26.1% chance for 1st pick)
The Chicago Sky have a 23-61 record from the past two seasons, giving them decent odds, but they will not keep this pick due to a trade. Regardless of where the original Chicago pick lands in the lottery, it will be transferred to the Minnesota Lynx.
The Lynx have drafted first overall twice before—back in 2006 and 2011 with Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, respectively, both of whom were later inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame. With a strong record of 64-20 over the past two seasons, the Lynx aim to secure the second overall pick in a promising draft class.
The last No. 2 overall selection for the Lynx was in 2023 when they chose Diamond Miller, who was later traded to Dallas for DeJonai Carrington. They also drafted Monica Wright-Rogers second overall in 2010, who is now the GM for the Toronto Tempo.
Seattle Storm, via Los Angeles Sparks (16.7% chance for 1st pick)
The LA Sparks had the best chances for the No. 1 pick in 2025, but their luck didn’t hold. They ended up with the No. 2 pick but ended up trading it to Seattle in a three-team deal. So while Seattle sent Jewell Lloyd to Las Vegas, the Sparks were now linked to Kelsey Plum. Consequently, Seattle also walked away with the pick from Los Angeles this season.
Seattle has previously held the No. 1 pick four times, choosing players like Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird, who won championships with the Storm. Their last top pick was Karina Mosqueda-Ruiz in 2015.
Washington Mystics (9.7% chance for 1st pick)
The Washington Mystics have shown impressive draft skills over recent seasons. Last year’s picks—Sonia Citron, Kiki Iliafen, and Georgia Amoua—are set to make significant contributions down the road. Citron and Iliafen made the All-Rookie team and were named All-Stars, while Amoua, recovering from an injury, is expected back in 2026.
Interestingly, the Mystics have only selected first overall once, back in 1999 for Shamika Holdsclaw. They’re much more familiar with picking at No. 4, having done so multiple times over the years.
Connecticut Sun, via Chicago Sky (5.5% chance for 1st pick)
The Sky will also receive a lottery pick in this year’s draft from the trade that sent Marina Mabry to the Sun. The Sun are on track to be a competitive playoff team in 2024, but with their past performance factored in, their chances of landing the top pick are slim, likely resulting in the No. 5 overall selection.
Interestingly, in their two-decade history, the Chicago Sky have never held the top pick, with their highest selections being No. 2 a few times. The only time they drafted fifth was in 2015 with Cheyenne Parker Tyus.
