As forecasts predict the arrival of a “Super El Niño” this year, affluent homeowners in California are anxiously watching their cliffside properties, which seem to be slowly crumbling away.
Take, for instance, 82-year-old Raymond Nuten, an ophthalmologist who has cherished his $10 million estate in Dana Point for over three decades.
He expanded his home to maximize its stunning ocean views, reputed to be among the best in the area.
However, every storm makes them uneasy. His large residence precariously hangs 70 feet above the railroad tracks and beach below.
This situation isn’t unique; numerous Californians are working to safeguard their homes from erosion and landslides that threaten their investments.
Experts are warning that the anticipated El Niño may wreak havoc along the coast, leading to the degradation of cliffs, bluffs, and beaches.
Nuten remarked, “You’re perched on 70 pylons reaching down to bedrock. You have to maintain the pool, the house, and even the basement.” He noted that the construction methods used to build such homes are no longer permitted.
While he enjoys breathtaking views, he’s mindful of the steep cliffs behind his property. He reflected on the uncertain future: “We’ll just have to see how it goes when it rains.” His home, he believes, is currently “okay,” though he’s seen neighbors suffer weather-related damages, such as a collapsed pool post-storm.
“Some properties suffered so much erosion that they had to lay down tarps to redirect the water,” Nuten explained, recognizing that the most concerning damage actually occurs directly beneath him.
“It’s happening right under my feet. These places by the beach are pretty close to the ocean,” he said.
When Nuten first moved in back in 1996, the sandy beach stretched out about 100 yards from his window. Nearly 30 years later, much of that sand has vanished, with waves crashing almost beneath the cliffs now.
He noted that while offers to buy his home were common in the past, fewer people inquire now, as he’s made it clear: “No, I’m going to die in this house.”
Gary Griggs, a professor of geosciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, outlined the dangers posed by rising sea levels and large waves. He explained that such conditions accelerate erosion and increase the risk of landslides.
Griggs elaborated, “In recent years, we’ve seen two main types of coastal conditions. There’s beach-level construction, while places built on cliffs, like Dana Point, face entirely different challenges.” He highlighted how high water, storm surges, and heavy rain can collectively weaken cliffs.
Griggs, who provides consulting for coastal home buyers, expressed reluctance about living in such areas: “When drafting reports, I often ask myself if I would live there. Given my background, the answer is no.”
El Niño, driven by warmer Pacific waters, brings heavy rains that can cause floods and landslides, a pattern California has faced previously. The extreme weather event from 2015-2016 led to record coastal erosion, a trend that researchers believe will worsen over time if conditions persist.
This year might pose even greater challenges.
Forecasters at NOAA anticipate a one-in-three chance of a Super El Niño arriving in the coming months. Griggs cautioned that the loss of beaches is only the beginning, urging the $25 million residents of Southern California that stronger storms could necessitate evacuations in the future.
“We may have to start considering retreating. I’ve seen many areas that have failed or been affected due to severe winters, but, understandably, no one wants to deal with that right now,” he noted.
Warnings about this year’s El Niño event indicate that it may significantly impact the coastline, including areas with vulnerable cliffs.
