It’s the new season of “The Apprentice,” only this time Donald Trump isn’t looking for the next business guru, he’s looking for a running mate.
He’s eyeing some possibilities closer to home. Namely, my original and adopted home states of New York and Florida.
Former congressman Lee Zeldin, who outperformed the expectations of Republicans in the state in the New York gubernatorial election two years ago, is one of the vice presidential candidates, but he has not received as much national media attention as President Trump’s advisers. Not yet.
Florida Congressman Byron Donald is in the same category.
There’s more public talk about New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, and many grassroots conservatives are dreaming of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis winning the election — even as tensions between the governor and DeSantis linger. However, sources say the possibility has not been ruled out. President Trump’s remarks regarding DeSantis’ nomination as presidential candidate.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s name has also come up in recent press speculation, but my sources are downplaying his chances.
Why are so many New York and Florida candidates on President Trump’s list?
Neither state can win in November.
Since 1988, no Republican has come within 15 points of winning New York in a presidential election.
Florida is much more competitive, and was the second state after North Carolina that Trump won by the smallest margin of less than 4 points in 2020.
But a scenario in which Joe Biden wins Florida in 2024 almost certainly doesn’t require that. That’s because Joe Biden should have won in the tighter battlegrounds where he was in the lead in 2020.
By the time Florida enters the field, the Republican ticket will not only face defeat, but crushing humiliation.
But Trump is only looking on the bright side. That’s the secret to his success, and the cause of his biggest problems.
For him, the possibility of losing in 2020 was unthinkable.
Even after winning in 2016, Trump believed the magnitude of his victory was much larger than official numbers acknowledged.
He recovered from a series of bankruptcies in his business career in the same way he recovered from a presidential defeat — through the power of positive thinking on a scale that ordinary people would find delusional.
Does he really think he can beat New York?
Or is the best way to achieve success simply aiming too high, rather than being satisfied with what seems realistic?
At least when it comes to these VP calculations, there is a way to solve what others would consider insanity.
Traditional thinking in both parties is obsessed with identity politics, which is affecting talent searches in New York and Florida.
But Trump also wants a partner who will be fiercely loyal to him. That’s why if you want a black vice presidential candidate, you’re better off with Byron Donald, one of Congress’ staunchest defenders, than Sen. Tim Scott, who is totally devoted to Trump. Maybe. Recent developments.
Mr. Zeldin and Mr. Stefanik similarly impressed Mr. Trump with their candor and frankness on his behalf.
Both have an identity politics perspective. Stefanik could help support women, and Zeldin would give Trump a Jewish running mate at a time when the Democratic coalition is cracking along the Israeli-Palestinian fault line.
But Zeldin also proved in the gubernatorial race what a disciplined Republican effort can accomplish, even in blue states, even if he doesn’t actually win.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Zeldin’s ticket may not win in New York or other Democratic strongholds, but it would maximize Republican votes in those areas and help Republicans in down-ballot races with control of Congress at stake. This will increase the odds of winning.
Trump takes personal pride in being a New Yorker. Believe it or not, the ambition to win at home may keep morale up during a difficult national campaign.
With Ron DeSantis, party-wide morale is also a consideration.
The governor is exciting conservatives who are willing to vote for Trump but aren’t enthusiastic about it.
Eight years ago, Trump nominated Mike Pence as his running mate to reassure traditional conservatives.
Currently, Mr. Pence has no intention of supporting Mr. Trump, and the former vice president himself has no supporters, but there are many Reagan Republicans, Christian conservatives, and policy-minded right-wingers who have doubts about Mr. Trump. do.
Mr. DeSantis could do for them what Mr. Pence did in 2016, and perhaps even more given his youth and policy success.
But if President Trump selects a Floridian, he or his running mate would have to choose a new state of residence. The Constitution provides penalties for tickets with presidential and vice presidential candidates from the same state.
Mr. Trump has residences in multiple locations, including his home state, which means there are multiple chances for Republicans to pick up a New York-Florida ticket this November.
Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review. For more information about Daniel McCarthy, please visit www.creators.com.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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