Daniel Ricciardo's shock mid-season return to the Formula One grid a year ago was supposed to be the sport's latest dream come true.
But as the grid arrives in Singapore for this weekend's Singapore Grand Prix, the end of that dream looks set to feel like a final stand.
Recent circumstances surrounding him and the driver's inconsistent form have made that dream feel like a nightmare, and this weekend – set to feature his return to the Singapore Grand Prix after missing last year through injury – there are indications his time with Visa Cash App RB F1 Team, and perhaps the sport itself, may be coming to an end.
Ricciardo's surprise return to the grid last season, replacing the struggling Nyck de Vries at AlphaTauri, was welcomed across the paddock by journalists and Netflix producers alike, and with Max Verstappen and Red Bull dominating the drivers' and constructors' championships respectively, the highly marketable Ricciardo's return provided some excitement.
However, his return was derailed when he broke his left hand in a crash during practice for the Dutch Grand Prix and subsequent surgery meant Ricciardo missed several races, giving reserve driver Liam Lawson the opportunity, which he took advantage of with some impressive performances, including a ninth place at the Singapore Grand Prix.
At that point in the season, Lawson's ninth place was the team's best finish of the year.
Of course, Ricciardo returned to the grid and put in a fine performance of his own. A strong qualifying run and using teammate Yuki Tsunoda's slipstream in both Q1 and Q2 helped him qualify fourth at the Mexico City Grand Prix. Ricciardo parlayed that into seventh place in the main event. It may have been his only points of the year, but it also went down as the team's best result.
AlphaTauri (now Visa Cash App RB F1 Team) faced a tough decision to fill its 2024 driver lineup, ultimately going with veterans Tsunoda and Ricciardo, with Lawson on the sidelines as a reserve. But the problem of fitting three drivers in two seats wasn't the only impossible mathematical problem the organization faced. Besides the two VCARB seats, the Red Bull family was also faced with the problem of fitting four drivers in three seats. Sure, Max Verstappen is locked into one of the four seats for as long as he wants, but with Sergio Pérez entering the final year of his contract in 2024, the three VCARB drivers not only wanted a seat in 2024, but also had their sights set on Pérez's seat at Red Bull in 2025.
It's a scenario that Ricciardo himself has often called a “fairy tale” ending to his F1 story.
That dream scenario was dealt a major blow this summer when Red Bull announced that Perez had signed a new contract with the team, keeping him in his current seat until 2026. Tsunoda then announced his own new deal at VCARB, keeping him in his current seat for another year.
Three seats are gone, leaving just one, with several drivers vying for the spot.
Ricciardo may have enjoyed a favourable position for the seat and a strong performance in Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix was probably ideal timing, but reports over the summer illustrated just how precarious his hold on the position was.
The first to surface were reports of Lawson's contract with Red Bull. According to Red Bull senior advisor Dr Helmut Marko, Lawson's contract with the team includes an escape clause, so if Lawson doesn't get a seat at Red Bull or VCARB, he's free to explore other options.
That's less than ideal if you're competing with him for a seat, and Lawson may indeed have options given how many seats remain unconfirmed for 2025 (nine, by the way). If he wants to keep Lawson in the family, it might be better to offer him a seat than to watch him go.
Marko's comments have subsequently prompted reports suggesting Red Bull shareholders may be pressuring the team to put a younger driver in the VCARB seat. Interview with Austrian media Kleine Zeitung Ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix, Marko said the decision to go young at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team may have come from above. [VCARB] “We're a junior team and we have to act accordingly.” A Red Bull adviser said:.
“The goal was for Ricciardo to qualify to return to Red Bull Racing with a great performance. That seat is now with Sergio Pérez, so that plan is gone. We need to bring in a young driver immediately,” Marko continued. “And that's Liam Lawson.”
That was in the summer. As autumn approaches, discussions around Ricciardo are accelerating. Marko continues to hint at an announcement about Lawson after this weekend's Singapore Grand Prix, and rumours are swirling that the team could replace Ricciardo ahead of October's United States Grand Prix.
The report led Ricardo to Under the supervision of VCARB and Red Bull representatives — spoke about his uncertain future at a media day in Singapore on Thursday.
Now, anything reported in the world of F1, especially when it comes to driver moves, needs to be taken in context and with a pinch of salt, and this good doctor, Marko, is never shy about providing quotes, so there may be a bit of a game in play here.
But things seem to be heading in a certain direction.
So, can Ricciardo put the RB01 “on the podium” as he planned to do in his comments? If Friday's first two practice runs are any indication, he might have a chance. Ricciardo was seventh in FP1 and sixth in FP2 on Friday. With teammate Yuki Tsunoda finishing in the top five in both sessions, it looks like VCARB could pull off a shocker and Ricciardo himself could put in an impressive showing for the future.
Ricciardo looked confident after Friday's practice sessions.
“It was a really good day for the whole team. Yuki and I finished in the top seven in both sessions – it was very close, I think four of us finished within two tenths of a second of each other. I'm happy with the car,” Ricciardo said in VCARB's practice report. “There's always fine-tuning to be done, but it's good to be in a good position for points today. We have a decent package here and we're competitive. There was a lot of grip today and the circuit was really fun to drive. Hopefully we can keep the pace up for qualifying tomorrow.”
However, the rumours seem to have moved quickly from “Ricciardo may be at risk in 2025” to “Lawson may take the seat in 2025” to now “Lawson may take the seat in October”.
If Lawson takes the second seat at VCARB, what about Ricciardo? After all, we're talking about a former race winner and one of the sport's best-known and most marketable figures. In a sport full of big names, Ricciardo is at the top of his game regardless of his race results and draws crowds wherever he goes, like at the Miami Grand Prix on media day.
Photo: Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images
Is the reason I included this photo because the back of my head with sunglasses on is perfectly visible in the lower left foreground? That's certainly possible…
But back to the point, racing is not a cheap endeavor. Driver marketability still plays a key role, even in F1's cost-cap era. Success off the grid influences success on it, and Ricciardo's popularity off the track is another line in his résumé, and an important one at that.
But that is Ricciardo's appeal, and in a sport where the marketing of a driver is always a consideration, it could play a role in keeping him on the grid next season. But if there is no place for him within the Red Bull family, and if a move to Lawson does indeed take place for the rest of this season or in 2025, what will that leave for Ricciardo in F1? The last seat available in such a situation would be at Sauber behind Nico Hulkenberg, but Valtteri Bottas and Gabriel Bortolet are seen as the front-runners for that.
And if not F1, Ricciardo is expected to garner interest in other motorsport series. He could be a star in IndyCar, where other drivers have moved on after their F1 days. Would he be interested in trying NASCAR or endurance racing? He's a highly sought-after driver and incredibly marketable, and even if his time in F1 closes one day, his racing days aren't over.
For the Red Bull organization, the ability to develop talent may be starting to pay off as decision time approaches regarding their 2025 driver. At some point, some drivers are going to be left behind. A year ago Lawson was that driver. But now the wind seems to be blowing in his favor and against Ricciardo. From a team perspective, we know what we have with Ricciardo, but if the idea is to prepare a driver to take over Perez's seat after his new contract expires, it might be a good move to wait a season to see what Lawson really has in store, given the rumors that he will move before Austin.
Furthermore, Lawson is not the only young Red Bull driver rumoured to be in line for an F1 seat in the near future, with F2 talent Isak Hajjar making a “strong claim” to a place on the F1 grid, as Christian Horner said earlier this season. There may be some within the organisation that giving Lawson a break for the rest of this season could cement his place in VCARB next year, or even pave the way for Hajjar to secure that seat.
After all, Marko's recent comments reflect VCARB's previous status as a “junior” team to Red Bull. During the Toro Rosso era and the early days of AlphaTauri, the sister team was seen as more of a proving ground. This could be another indication that Lawson or Hajjar will be selected for the position.
For example, Verstappen started there.
If the organization truly wants to return to that model, Riccardo may end up just watching from the outside.
It brings his dream of a fairytale ending to a difficult end.
