Every year, ExxonMobil Global OutlookThe company detailed its outlook for the future of oil, natural gas and other forms of energy. Key findings The company's global outlook for 2024, released on Monday, includes:
- All energy types remain mixed.
- Renewable energy will grow most rapidly.
- The largest decline will be in coal.
- In any credible scenario, oil and natural gas will remain essential.
- Low-carbon technologies need policy support to grow rapidly, but ultimately must be underpinned by market forces.
If you are surprised by these conclusions, you probably have unrealistic expectations about what will happen in the global energy sector between now and 2050. International Energy Agency While the (IEA) would dispute Finding 4, the inescapable reality expressed in Finding 5 ensures that oil and natural gas will remain essential for the foreseeable future and likely beyond. (Related article: David Blackmon: Biden resigns after energy policy collapses)
In fact, when it comes to crude oil demand, ExxonMobil projects that demand will plateau after 2030 and remain at more than 100 million barrels per day until at least 2050. This 2050 demand forecast is double the forecast recently released by the IEA.
ExxonMobil Point out this conflict “While our outlook is a prediction, many scenarios, such as the International Energy Agency's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (IEA NZE) work backwards from a hypothetical outcome to identify the elements needed to achieve that outcome. It is important to note that the IEA recognises that society is not on a path to net zero,” it points out, casting doubt on the company's views in its predictions.
Therein lies the problem: global society is already far behind the pace of transition needed to achieve the ambitious goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, and with each passing day, we fall further behind. Until we can devise truly reliable, affordable, and scalable alternatives to the heavily subsidized, profit-driven industries of wind, solar, and electric vehicles favored by transition advocates in and outside government, the pace of this stalled transition is likely to continue to worsen.
The slowdown in the electric vehicle market in the West has already forced companies such as Ford to reassess their investments in the technology. Ford announced The automaker said last week it would likely take $1.9 billion in special charges and impairments as it scrapped plans to introduce a new three-row electric SUV and continues to focus instead on introducing a new line of hybrid models.
General Motors has also made a series of announcements. delay EV investment.
The reassessment by these and other automakers has been forced by a dramatic slowdown in growth in U.S. auto consumer demand. A market that expanded nearly 50% in 2023 is expected to grow just 6% in the first half of 2024, with few signs of recovery. Hybrid models, however, remain popular and sales are expected to grow. Nearly double the pace Increase sales of pure EVs by 2024. (Related article: David Blackmon: Two years on, the IRA is exactly what critics predicted)
The Biden Administration's tough new emissions and fuel economy standards are designed to force the transition to EVs, but these big companies need to keep making profits to keep producing any type of vehicle, and it seems likely that a market unwilling to comply with government mandates will ultimately force them to change them.
Of course, this reality brings us back to the ExxonMobil finding5: any technology that cannot ultimately be supported by market forces is doomed to fail in any free society. Sadly, at present, European governments Like Britain, Germany and France are moving towards more authoritarian forms of government in an attempt to coerce unwilling masses into submission.
The Biden-Harris administration has not moved as aggressively in that direction, but there are certainly signs of a willingness to do so. Viewed in this light, ExxonMobil’s projections of robust oil demand through 2050 are a tacit endorsement that freedom and markets will ultimately prevail.
David Blackmon is a Texas-based energy writer and consultant who worked in the oil and gas industry for 40 years and specializes in public policy and communications.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
As an independent, nonpartisan news service, all content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation is available free of charge to any legitimate news publisher with a large readership. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and affiliation with the DCNF. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
