A new day has begun in Washington, with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House and Republicans taking control of the House and Senate majorities. In preparation for the upcoming inauguration event, the following talking points summarize seven facts you need to know about the 2024 election.
1. For the first time since Watergate, independents exceeded One of the major political parties, ranked second in terms of party identification. Independents rose from 27% in 2020 to 34% in 2024, an increase of 7 points.
2. The Democratic Party came in second only to independents in terms of percentage of voters, effectively becoming the third party in the election. The Democratic Party's presidential electoral share will fall from 37% in 2020 to 31% in 2024, a 6-point decline.
3. Republicans had the advantage of historic party ID. The Republican share of all voters decreased by 1% from 36% in 2020 to 35% in 2024, but the Republican Party, which has not gained any advantage in the past 10 presidential elections, has a +4 advantage in party ID. had sex.
4. Views on the economy were very negative. exit poll showed An overwhelming 75% of voters said inflation has caused some degree of hardship for them and their families. Post-election polls show that the economy/inflation was the top issue at 40%, with Republicans leading on economic issues at +11 and inflation at +12. In contrast, Democrats chose to focus their campaign messages on abortion and democracy. (Related: Numbers don't lie: Data barrage shows how difficult it will be for Americans to find jobs under Biden administration)
5. Trump was the replacement candidate. According to exit polls, the top two most important candidate qualities (out of four options) were his ability. lead and bring changes needed. Trump won decisively on both attributes, leading 2-1 (Trump +33) in leadership ability and 3-1 (Trump +50) in ability to bring about needed change.
6. With Trump's victory, the Republican Party has made significant inroads into Hispanic voters. 46% of this group of voters. This is an improvement from performance in 2016 (28%) and 2020 (32%).
7. Despite the Democratic Party's campaign focus on abortion and its female candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris won only one point with a woman. 8 points. Harris's margin among women was significantly smaller than President Joe Biden's in 2020. among women (+15) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin. among women (+13).
David Winston and Myra Miller are co-founders of The Winston Group. This is republished with permission from Winston Group.
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