introduction
Good morning from Davos. The first day of the World Economic Forum begins.
As the world digests yesterday's inauguration of President Donald Trump and a flurry of executive orders from the White House, we will hear from a number of world leaders.
For that, Ding YukishoAs China's vice prime minister, he may be relieved that President Trump has refused to elaborate on his plans to tax imports from China.
However, the much-feared trade war has not yet begun, but in any case, the escalation of armed conflict is seen as the biggest risk facing the global economy, raising concerns about what will happen in the coming years. There is.
Karen HarrisManaging Director Bain & Companies The Macro Trends Group said the past five years have been “the most macroeconomic shock in modern history,” starting with the coronavirus pandemic and continuing with an inflation shock.
Harris addition:
“As business and political leaders gather in Davos in 2025, one important question will dominate: Will this turbulent five years end with a calm return to normalcy?
“The data suggests that. The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.2% in 2024, slightly below the 2010-2019 median of 3.5%, and 2025 growth For us in 2019, these numbers may suggest normality, with the US and China leading the way and Europe sluggish. The production is It is stable at 3-3.5%.
“But behind these numbers lie vulnerabilities: alarming changes in unemployment rates in the US, deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and high stock market concentration**.
“Furthermore, the change in the US administration also casts doubt on this narrative. A focus on reducing trade deficits will primarily affect China but also Europe, and the role of the US as a major supplier of global demand. The US has such a structure. If the EU experiences a change, it could face intense competition from China for export market share. This would instead complicate the notion of a soft landing back to normal. There will continue to be uncertainty.”
agenda
-
8:15am CET / 7:15am GMT: Session on “Thoughts from the Early Years of the 47th President of the United States”
-
9:30am CET / 8:30am GMT: Conversation with David Beckham
-
9:30am CET / 8:30am GMT: Session on USD
-
10:50am CET / 9:50am GMT: Special lecture by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
-
11:20am CET/10:20am GMT: Special speech by Ding Xuexiang, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China
-
1pm CET / Noon GMT: Cryptocurrency session
-
2pm CET / 1pm GMT: Special speech by German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz
-
2:30pm CET / 1:30pm GMT: Special speech by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy
-
3pm CET / 2pm GMT: Special speech by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
-
5pm CET/4pm GMT: Conversation with Israeli President Isaac Herzog
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Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, is predicting a “dramatic shift to the US-China relationship” in the next few months.
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Bremmer tells WEF that he believes the US China relationship is the one where it will be most problematic to get a deal.
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He predicts we are heading towards a trade war, and a more strategic decoupling of the two economies.
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“China’s complicated,” Bremmer points out, saying that the only way US-China relations were stabilised recently was due to a large number of bilateral meeting between the two sides.
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Bremmer says Trump wants to meet Xi, flatter him, and get a deal…but it wil be hard to get a deal that works for all in his administration, and which will please Congress.
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves is heading to the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos later today in a push to win new investment for the UK economy.
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Reeves will be emphasising the UK’s political and economic stability and promoting the government as pro-business.
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She is expected to meet business leaders including the JPMorgan Chase chief executive, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon, and Jo Taylor, president of giant Canadian pensions fund the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.
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Reeves said:
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\n
“Business leaders and investors need to know that the UK is where their businesses will flourish, so I’m meeting them face to face in Davos to make our case.”
\n
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Good morning from Davos, where the first full day of the World Economic Forum is getting underway.
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We’ll hear from a slew of global leaders, as the world digests the inauguration of Donald Trump yesterday, and the flurry of executive orders from the White House.
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That includes Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of China, where there may be relief that Trump has declined to flesh out his plans for taxing Chinese imports.
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But while the much-feared trade war hasn’t kicked off, yet anyway, there’s anxiety over what the next few years will bring – with escalating armed conflict seen as the biggest risk facing the world economy.
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Karen Harris, managing director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, points out that the last five years have been the most “macro-economically shocking in modern history”, starting with the Covid-19 pandemic and followed by the inflation shock.
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Harris adds:
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“As business and political leaders gather in Davos in 2025, one key question dominates: Will this tumultuous five-year period end with a gentle return to normal?
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\n
“The data suggests so. The IMF projects 2024 global growth at 3.2%, slightly below the 2010–2019 median of 3.5%, with 2025 growth at 3.3%. To our 2019 selves, these numbers might imply normalcy: the US and China driving growth, Europe sluggish, global output steady at 3–3.5%.
\n
“Yet beneath these numbers sits fragility: alarming unemployment change in the US, deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and a high degree of equity market concentration**.
\n
“Additionally, the change of US administration also challenges this narrative. A focus on reducing trade deficits, primarily affecting China but also Europe, could disrupt the US’s role as a major provider of global demand. If the US undergoes such structural shifts, the EU could face intense competition with China for export market share. This complicates the notion of a back-to-normal soft landing. Instead, normal will be continued uncertainty.”
\n
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The agenda
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8.15am CET / 7.15am GMT: A session on ‘47th US Presidency Early Thoughts’
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9.30am CET / 8.30am GMT: Conversation with David Beckham
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9.30am CET / 8.30am GMT: Session on the US Dollar
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10.50am CET / 9.50am GMT: Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
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11.20am CET /10.20am GMT: Special Address by Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China
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1pm CET / noon GMT: A session on crypto
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2pm CET / 1pm GMT: Special Address by Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor of Germany
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2.30pm CET / 1.30pm GMT: Special Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
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3pm CET / 2pm GMT: Special Address by Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
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5pm CET/ 4pm GMT: A Conversation with Isaac Herzog, President of Israel
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
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\n
\n
\n
\n
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main events
President Trump says his return to the White House is the biggest political comeback in history. graham AlisonDouglas Dillon Professor of Government harvard university Kennedy School of Government.
Alison He tells WEF:
“Trump has accomplished something no one in the world has ever done before. A dead politician is back.”
At Davos four years ago, Mr. Trump was dead and buried, Allison reminded attendees, adding:
“This is the biggest comeback ever for a politician.”
New Trump administration warns it will be exposed to inflationary pressures Alison schragerSenior Researcher Manhattan Institute for Policy Studies, However, it also has the potential to lead to higher growth.
Widespread tariffs would lead to higher price levels. schrager point out
Another challenge is rising bond yields, which means higher borrowing costs.
schrager Although he is optimistic that the new government has plans for future growth, he also expects the budget deficit to increase.
She suggested that it would be good for growth if President Trump cut corporate taxes to 15%, before pointing to a “change in tone” in the United States.
“There is a positive feeling that will lead to significant growth.”
US-China relations heading for “dramatic changes'' under Trump administration
Donald Trump is looming over attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos today.
ian bremerPresident and Founder of Eurasia grouppredicts “dramatic changes in U.S.-China relations” in the coming months.
Bremer told WEF that he believes U.S.-China relations will be the most problematic issue in reaching an agreement.
He predicts that we will be heading towards a trade war and a more strategic separation of our two economies.
“China is complicated,” Bremer said, noting that the only way U.S.-China relations have stabilized recently is because of the many bilateral talks between the two sides.
Bremer said Trump wants to meet with Xi to flatter him and get an agreement, but it will be difficult to get an agreement that works for everyone in the administration and pleases Congress.
Reeves heads to Davos to promote investment
Prime Minister Rachel Reeves will head to the World Economic Forum in Davos later today in a bid to win new investment into the UK economy.
Mr Reeves will emphasize Britain's political and economic stability and tout the government's pro-business stance.
She is expected to meet with business leaders such as: JP Morgan tracking chief executive officer, jamie DaimonPresident of Goldman Sachs david solomonand Joe taylorpresident of Canada's giant pension fund Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.
Reeves Said:
“Business leaders and investors need to know that the UK is a place where their businesses can thrive, so I’m meeting them face-to-face in Davos to make the case.”
introduction
Good morning from Davos. The first day of the World Economic Forum begins.
As the world digests yesterday's inauguration of President Donald Trump and a flurry of executive orders from the White House, we will hear from a number of world leaders.
For that, Ding YukishoAs China's vice prime minister, he may be relieved that President Trump has refused to elaborate on his plans to tax imports from China.
However, while the much-feared trade war has not yet begun, escalation of armed conflict is seen as the biggest risk facing the global economy anyway, and there are concerns about what will happen in the coming years. I have anxiety.
Karen HarrisManaging Director Bain & Companies The Macro Trends Group said the past five years have been “the most macroeconomic shock in modern history,” starting with the coronavirus pandemic and continuing with an inflation shock.
Harris addition:
“As business and political leaders gather in Davos in 2025, one important question will dominate: Will this turbulent five years end with a calm return to normalcy?
“The data suggests that. The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.2% in 2024, slightly below the 2010-2019 median of 3.5%, and 2025 growth For us in 2019, these numbers may suggest normality, with the US and China leading the way and Europe sluggish. The production is It is stable at 3-3.5%.
“But behind these numbers lie vulnerabilities: alarming changes in unemployment rates in the US, deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and high stock market concentration**.
“Furthermore, the change in the US administration also casts doubt on this narrative. A focus on reducing trade deficits will primarily affect China but also Europe, and the role of the US as a major supplier of global demand.” The US has this structure. If the EU experiences a change, it could face intense competition from China for export market share. This would instead complicate the notion of a soft landing back to normal. There will continue to be uncertainty.”
agenda
-
8:15am CET / 7:15am GMT: Session on “Thoughts from the Early Years of the 47th President of the United States”
-
9:30am CET / 8:30am GMT: Conversation with David Beckham
-
9:30am CET / 8:30am GMT: Session on USD
-
10:50am CET / 9:50am GMT: Special lecture by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
-
11:20am CET/10:20am GMT: Special speech by Ding Xuexiang, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China
-
1pm CET / Noon GMT: Cryptocurrency session
-
2pm CET / 1pm GMT: Special speech by German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz
-
2:30pm CET / 1:30pm GMT: Special speech by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy
-
3pm CET / 2pm GMT: Special speech by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
-
5pm CET/4pm GMT: Conversation with Israeli President Isaac Herzog
