The share of Americans who identify as Democrats will hit an all-time low in 2023, leaving party members in a “weaker position than in recent election years,” according to a new Gallup poll. found.
Of more than 12,000 U.S. adults, 27 percent say they are Democrats, the lowest percentage since Gallup began tracking this metric in 1988. The margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at a 95 percent confidence level.
“Democratic identity has declined by 1 point in each of the past three years. These declines and a new low recorded in 2023 are likely related to the unpopularity of President Joe Biden,” according to the Gallup Poll. the investigation report states. “Biden’s Approval rate for work It has generally hovered around 40% since late 2021, and has been consistently below that mark since 2021. October, November, and December”
Gallup's 2023 average: Do you consider yourself a Republican or a Democrat? (with indie-leaning people)
Republican: 45%
Democratic Party: 43%Highest numbers for Republicans since 1991
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Without leaner:43% identify as independent, tying the record set in 2014.
27% identify as a Democrat (lowest ever)… pic.twitter.com/60SsG3mVyC
— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) January 12, 2024
The study found that independents continue to make up the largest political bloc in the United States, with an average of 43% of adults identifying as independent in 2023, matching the previous high of 2014.
According to the poll:
The independent identification rate has been above 40 percent every year since 2011, except for the presidential election years of 2016 (39 percent) and 2020 (39 percent). The percentage of U.S. adults who identify as Republicans and Democrats is the same at 27%, and Gallup trends show Democrats' numbers being the lowest of any party.
Gallup found that independents have outnumbered both major political parties since 1991, except for a few years from 2004 to 2008. The increase in the share of independents “comes at the expense of Democrats more than Republicans, a group that may be expected since Democrats were previously the largest party,” the report said. ing.
Gallup also asked respondents who identified as independents whether they lean Republican or Democratic. In 2023, there will be slightly more Republican-leaning independents than Democrats, such that 45 percent of U.S. adults identify as Republican or Republican-leaning, while Democrats/Democratic-leaning It was 43%.
“Democrats are clearly in a weaker position than in any election year in recent years. This is due to a new lower share of U.S. adults identifying themselves as Democrats, as well as an advantage for partisan Republicans.” ,” says the Gallup analysis.
In each of the past four presidential elections, Democrats have had at least a 5-point advantage in identifying leaning parties. They won the popular vote each year, but Republican Donald Trump won the 2016 election based on Electoral College votes.
The report continues:
The 2023 numbers are similar to 2022, when Republicans had a one-point advantage (45% to 44%). Since Gallup began regularly measuring independent political leanings in 1991, Republicans have rarely had an advantage. In fact, 2023 is the third time, after 1991 and 2022, that Republicans have had even a slight advantage.
Gallup also asked respondents to describe themselves on a spectrum from liberal to conservative. According to the survey, in 2023, 36% of U.S. adults will identify as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 25% as liberal, about the same as the average for the past 10 years.
Interestingly, self-identification as liberal increased from the 1990s to the 2000s, when it was less than 20%.
“As Gallup has done before, documented, the increase in liberal identification reflects a major shift in the way Democrats describe their political views. Last year, 53 percent of Democrats identified as liberal, 35 percent as moderate and 11 percent as conservative, according to the poll report. “The 53% liberal figure is similar to the 2022 level, but compared to 43% in 2013, 32% in 2003, and 25% in 1994 (the first year Gallup analyzed ideology by party).'' ) has been rising since.
As for Republicans, 73% identify as conservative, and 22% say they are moderate. Among independents, 48 percent identify as moderate, 30 percent identify as conservative, and 20 percent identify as liberal.
