There are cracks in the blue wall.
Democratic registration declined by 7% in New York City and 4% across the Empire State between 2020 and 2024. It's the latest sign of dissatisfaction with liberal policies that some experts say is fueling a nationwide shift to the right.
According to data from the Election Commission, from November 2020, when there were 3.4 million registered Democratic Party voters, to November 2024, the number of registered voters in the city plummeted by 258,612.
This figure accounted for most of the 271,322 decrease in party membership registration as the Republican Party recorded a slight increase of 2%, or 67,483, in registered voters statewide. , this number would bring the total number of Republicans to just over 3 million.
The number of registered Republicans in the city increased by an additional 4,912 people, bringing the total to 573,644, according to the data.
But the biggest development was a 12% increase in the number of registered voters in the state without a political party, so-called “blanks” or independents. The number of independent voters increased by 353,792 to more than 3.3 million, outnumbering Republicans statewide.
In New York City, the number of independent voters increased by 7%, or 80,134 people, to 1,155,323, nearly double the number of Republicans overall.
One voting expert said the data shows the Republican-Indy coalition could grow, as the results of the presidential election show.
In Blue New York, President-elect Donald Trump received 44% of the vote and Vice President Kamala Harris received 56%, the highest percentage for a Republican candidate in 36 years. Democrats across the country are trying to overcome the carnage of losing the White House and both the House and Senate to Republicans.
In the 2022 gubernatorial race, Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by just 6 points (53% to 47%). Zeldin, a former congressman, is currently President Trump's nominee to head the Environmental Protection Agency.
“Across districts, the percentage of people who recently registered as independent is highly correlated with the percentage of people who voted for Trump in 2024,” said John Mollenkopf, professor of political science at New York University Graduate Center. “Changes in registration patterns clearly indicate a degree of dissatisfaction with Democrats and an openness to voting for Republican candidates.”
However, Mollenkopf warned Republicans never to open a bottle of champagne.
“That's because they [voters] He joined the Republican Party. So this is a challenge for Democrats and an opportunity for Republicans, but there's no deal yet.”
Democrats still have a massive registration advantage of 6.54 million voters over Republicans and independent registered voters combined.
Still, the results show that Republicans and independents are chipping away at Democrats in several key areas.
On Staten Island, Democratic registration decreased by nearly 9,000 votes, but Republican registration increased by more than 2,000 and independents jumped by more than 9,000 (12%) to 86,155 independent voters. It became.
“This result shows the Democratic Party's dissatisfaction with one-party control,” said Staten Island Republican Party Chairman Michael Tanousis, a state representative.
State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox said Democrats are “bleeding and losing.”
“We are benefiting, and the separatists are benefiting,” he said.
Cox said Democratic one-party control has led to New York's tax increases and loosening of crime policies such as cashless bail laws, and the state's population continues to decline.
State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs acknowledged that the decline in party registrations and the surge in independent registrations are concerning and need to be addressed.
“That's definitely consistent with what we've been hearing anecdotally: People aren't completely satisfied with the party's direction or message,” Jacobs said.
“We have to do a better job. Democrats have to do a better job of giving new voters a reason to join the party.”
However, voters are not flocking to the Republican Party.
In fact, Democrats regained four House seats lost to Republicans in 2022.
Jacobs said Democrats were demanding his head two years ago.
“I can hear the crickets right now,” he joked.
