A new poll showing former President Trump losing approval ratings to President Biden by single digits in heavily Democratic New York should sound alarm bells, according to veteran Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.
“This is a sign of a general feeling of discontent among the public,” Sheinkopf told Fox News Digital in an interview on Friday. “We’re less than five months away from the election. People are unhappy with taxes. People are unhappy with crime. People are unhappy with disorder. And generally, when you have disorder, it tends to favor the opposing party, whether that’s Republican or Democrat.”
Sheinkopf, who has worked on more than 700 political campaigns, said a recent Siena College poll showing the gap between Biden and Trump in New York state running 8 points, 47% to 39%, suggests a significant number of voters dislike both candidates.
“People aren’t worried about the conviction of a former president,” he said of Trump, who was convicted in a New York court last month of 34 felony counts, including falsifying business records.
Trump is approaching single digits in heavily Democratic states Biden won by 23 points in 2020
A New York statewide poll by Siena College found President Biden (left) holding a slim eight-point lead over former President Trump. (Getty Images)
“What worries them is the current situation. They’re not happy with Trump. And frankly, if you look at the ‘hate both’ type groups that you see a lot in the polls, they’re not happy with Biden. They can’t make a decision because they don’t know what to do. That’s why they’re stuck in the middle in a lot of places and stuck in states that Biden should win handily, close margins that he shouldn’t be.”
If the November election results are anything like the Siena College poll snapshot, it would be a historic result for Republican presidential candidates in New York and a sign of serious trouble for Biden, who won the state by 23 points in 2020.
“While Biden maintains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has the support of 85% of Republicans and leads Biden among independents, 45% to 28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement.
“The gender gap has widened again, with men supporting Trump 46% to 42% and women supporting Biden 51% to 33%. White voters are split evenly. Biden has a commanding lead among non-white voters, but Trump has the support of 29% of black voters and 26% of Hispanic voters,” he added.
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Crowds gathered at Crotona Park in the South Bronx, New York City, for a campaign rally for former President Donald Trump on May 23. The borough, with its large Latino community, has been a Democratic base for generations, and the rally came as Trump seeks to attract more non-white voters. (Spencer Pratt/Getty Images)
In a survey of New York state voters, Biden’s job approval rating was 45% approving and 53% disapproving, while his favorability rating was 42% approving and 53% disapproving — the lowest ratings ever recorded by Siena College.
While the numbers aren’t good for Biden, they’re even worse for New York-born Trump, with the former president’s approval rating at 37% and disapproval at 59%, according to the poll.
Still, the narrower-than-expected margin between the Democratic incumbent and his Republican challenger is reminiscent of the Republicans’ surprising strength in New York’s 2022 gubernatorial election, when Democratic Gov. Kathy Hockle defeated former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin by just 6.4 percentage points, the closest margin of victory since 1994.
Zeldin told Fox News Digital that the Siena College poll is in line with other recent polls showing Biden’s support declining in New York state. An Emerson College/The Hill/PIX11 poll last month showed Biden leading Trump by just seven percentage points, 48% to 41%.
“If the polls in New York are this close, it bodes well for polls in other states where party registration between Republicans and Democrats is more evenly matched,” Zeldin said.
Trump beats Biden by a wide margin in states Obama won twice
Former President Trump held a rally on May 23 in the historically Democratic borough of South Bronx, New York City. (Spencer Pratt/Getty Images)
He said issues that concern New Yorkers, such as immigration and the economy, have shifted to the right since he ran for governor.
“The border crisis was a top three issue for many New Yorkers, but now it’s their No. 1 issue. [New York City Mayor] “Eric Adams’ approval rating is even worse. Kathy Haukle’s approval rating is even worse. Joe Biden’s approval rating is even worse. So it’s a huge benefit to the Trump campaign in terms of the Democratic brand and the profile of Democratic elected officials,” Zeldin said.
But is New York really a good place for Trump? While leading Republican candidates claim they can win the state, Sheinkopf is skeptical.
“Trump has to somehow convince Americans that he’s not reckless, and Biden has to somehow convince Americans that he’s in good hands and the economy is not as bad as they think, which is not the case. Inflation is down, jobs are up, but Americans are worried,” he said.
Biden and Trump will have a chance to make their case at CNN’s presidential debate in Atlanta on Thursday, and Sheinkopf said Biden needs to speak clearly and appear strong to do well.
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“Every word he says will be dissected. He is the president of the United States and the most powerful person on the planet. Meanwhile, Trump, who was once the most powerful person on the planet, is a convicted felon and yet somehow continues to function, raise large amounts of money and enjoy credibility.”
“This has never happened before. [If] “If the president can’t show strength, it doesn’t matter whether Trump is convicted or not. That’s what’s extraordinary.”
Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
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