For Democrats, the key phrase of the day was “proceed cautiously.”
The day after a gunman attempted to assassinate former President Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania and after Democrats continued to debate whether President Biden should withdraw from the presidential race, the president’s allies and other party officials were privately wondering how the latest twist in the race would ultimately play out.
In the wake of the tragic incident, Biden has suspended his political activities for the time being out of respect for Trump, and has even pulled his political ads. But many questions remain for Democrats. Will this moment give Biden a reprieve from calls to withdraw? Will the image of Trump with clenched fists and blood dripping from his face cast him in a new light? And what does all this mean for Democrats as the Republican National Convention kicks off on Monday?
“There are more questions than answers at this point,” acknowledged a top Democratic strategist and Biden aide. “I don’t think anyone knows, even this week, how this is going to play out. There are just too many unknowns.”
In particular, discussions about Biden’s age and mental capacity were on hold, said more than a dozen Democratic officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive topics that no one wanted to touch in the hours after the shooting.
While the debate over whether Biden should withdraw has dominated headlines and created a never-ending news cycle over the past two weeks, Democrats, from lawmakers to donors, have quickly gone quiet on the issue.
“Now is not the time,” said one Democratic donor who has voiced concerns about Biden in recent days. “I’m not saying the debate won’t resume in the next few days or next week, but it would be extremely insensitive to debate Biden now.”
“We all need to take a breath and see what happens,” the donor added.
A second Democratic strategist predicted that the focus on Saturday’s tragic events “will dull the public uproar, but I don’t think it will dull the private conversation.”
“I’ve seen enough data to show that my constituents are lagging behind, and the state-by-state numbers are really rough.”
Political analysts said it would become increasingly difficult for Democrats to keep up pressure on Biden to drop out of the race.
“With the clock ticking and the nation preoccupied with the assassination attempt, many Democrats will not want to focus on this issue,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public policy at Princeton University. “Some may find it too hard to destabilize their candidate.”
“That said, the problems won’t go away for Biden and may get even worse when Trump emerges from this horrific act stronger than ever,” Zelizer added.
Biden’s case for remaining in the race was also bolstered Sunday by three national polls showing him barely trailing Trump since his dismal debate performance late last month. All three polls, conducted by Fox News, NBC News and CBS News, give Trump a 1-2 point lead nationally. But that could change in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump.
While Biden’s campaign is effectively on hold for the time being, longtime Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who has not endorsed Trump, predicts the topic won’t remain at the forefront for long.
First, the debate will likely shift direction this week as news breaks about President Trump’s choice of running mate and the start of the party convention potentially puts the Republican Party back into campaign mode.
Del Percio said it would be difficult for Trump or other Republicans to quickly pivot to attack Biden, which would likely prompt Democrats to launch a similar counterattack.
“My question is what will Republicans do and say, because Democrats are going to be much more careful and much more responsible with their words,” she said.
“I can’t imagine there being any harsh, ugly language aimed at Joe Biden on the first day of the tournament,” she added. “That would generate a response from the Biden team, and frankly, that would be the start of renegotiations.”
Since the assassination attempt, Biden has tried to play the role of comforter in chief, even as he met with his longtime rival, Trump, on Saturday night. The White House has sought to portray Biden accordingly, releasing photos of him being briefed by Homeland Security and law enforcement officials inside the Situation Room. On Sunday night, he is due to deliver a rare address to the nation from the Oval Office.
The president is also scheduled to appear on Monday in an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt that was initially expected to focus on calls for him to drop out of the presidential race, but is now expected to focus primarily on the Trump tragedy.
In the short term, with the campaign sidelined, it would benefit Biden to be seen as someone who can temporarily set aside his differences with Trump and reassure the American people, one strategist said.
“It bolsters Biden’s case,” the strategist said. “He represents stability. He’s dealing with a crisis. And in a way, he’s answering the arguments about his own intellectual acuity.”
“And that creates a contrast with Trump,” the strategist added. “You can’t expect Trump to be stable for long. And once he starts playing Trump, the game is over.”
