As the government shutdown enters its second week, it appears that Democrats may have an advantage—for now.
Recent polls indicate that voters are more inclined to blame President Trump and the Republican Party for the ongoing deadlock. There seems to be a lack of consensus among Republicans regarding compensation for furloughed workers, with House Speaker Mike Johnson sending mixed signals about military pay. Additionally, there are signs that GOP resistance to extending Obamacare subsidies is weakening.
This situation has left Republican leaders backpedaling, as they find themselves blaming Democrats for the impasse. Such developments are giving Democrats a boost in confidence, enabling them to stand united against the Republicans’ short-term spending proposal, while advocating for the extension of Obamacare tax credits—the core of the current stalemate.
“Democrats have remained steadfast. Our stance hasn’t changed; we’ve been saying this for months,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer remarked on Wednesday. “Republicans are responsible for shutting down the government by refusing to tackle the healthcare crisis in America.”
Soon after, Schumer joined 43 Senate Democrats in voting against the Republicans’ Continuing Resolution (CR). The vote, with a count of 54-45, fell short of the 60 votes required to overcome the filibuster, marking yet another failure for the bill in the Senate.
Only two Democrats and one independent supported the bill, whereas Senators John Fetterman, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Angus King, who typically align with Democrats, have all backtracked on their previous support. This lack of new defections within the Democratic ranks is slowing down the traction Republican leaders hoped to gain through their frequent bill proposals during past shutdowns.
Meanwhile, House Democrats have been quick to draw attention to Johnson’s choice to cancel all House votes just two days before the shutdown started.
“Republicans love to impose stricter work requirements on low-income individuals, those on SNAP, and Medicaid,” stated Rep. Jim McGovern. “I have a suggestion: let’s set work requirements for Republicans to show up and actually do their jobs.”
On the Republican side, there’s also a sense of confidence that they are winning this round. They stand firm in their refusal to collaborate on healthcare or any other issues until Democrats agree to reopen the government.
“The House is done with its part. Now, it’s up to the Senate,” Johnson mentioned at a news briefing, dismissing concerns over voting as unnecessary.
“I realize this narrative might feel repetitive, but nothing has shifted,” echoed Senate Majority Leader John Thune, asserting that discussions will occur once the government reopens.
Nonetheless, changes have been unfolding recently, and many indicate Democrats might have the upper hand, at least for the moment.
Though it’s still early days, polls are consistently showing that a larger number of voters hold Republicans accountable for the current deadlock.
According to a recent YouGov poll, 45% of voters blamed Trump and the GOP, while 36% assigned blame to Democrats. A new CBS survey revealed similar findings, with 39% attributing responsibility to Trump and the GOP, compared to 30% for Democrats—a nine-point difference. Other surveys are indicating that Democrats enjoy a comparable lead.
Challenges also loom for Republicans regarding Trump’s suggestion to withhold back pay for furloughed federal workers—a common practice during government shutdowns. Although Trump previously signed legislation affirming this practice in 2019, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget recently stated that the government isn’t legally obligated to make such payments. This raised further ambiguity about the routine nature of these payments, which Trump has echoed in his public statements.
The news led to a swift backlash among Republican lawmakers, many of whom affirmed their support for ensuring back pay.
“It’s not the president’s decision to make,” said Sen. John Kennedy. “While his opinion counts, it’s Congress that needs to allocate funds.”
As Democrats press forward, Trump and his allies seem to be reevaluating their approach.
Officials indicated layoffs could soon be on the horizon, with Trump suggesting over the weekend that they had already begun, but those cuts haven’t yet materialized.
On Tuesday, Trump appeared to downplay the OMB memo, stating, “For the most part, we’re going to ensure our people are taken care of.”
Military pay disputes are also creating complications for Republican leaders. Johnson hinted at the possibility of the House reconvening in Washington to vote on a separate bill to secure military pay during the shutdown, with an initial proposal planned for October 15th.
“I’m definitely open to that. We’ve done it before,” he mentioned. “We must ensure our troops receive their pay.”
Yet, on Wednesday, the chairman recanted, stating that if Democrats want to see military pay secured, they should support the Republicans’ continuing resolution.
“If Hakeem Jeffries and House Democrats want to assert they support troop pay, they should be willing to vote again on what’s already been decided: the CR,” he stated.
When asked whether he would prompt Congress to pass a separate bill to secure soldier payments during the shutdown, Trump expressed willingness but indicated there was no urgency.
“Yes, that will probably happen. But there’s no need to worry just yet. It’s a lengthy process,” he remarked. “A week feels like an eternity to me… Our troops will always be taken care of.”
Mixed messages also abound among Republicans regarding healthcare policy.
While conservatives have vehemently opposed extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, claiming they central to the shutdown crisis, Republican leaders maintain they’ll refuse to negotiate on this issue until the government reopens. Yet some prominent Republicans facing challenging reelection campaigns are advocating for a one-year extension of these tax credits, while Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is urging Republican leaders to act swiftly on the matter.
“The subsidy issue is significant,” Greene told NewsNation. “This isn’t a hoax.”
White House officials argue that lawmakers need to reopen the government to engage in discussions about healthcare.
However, Trump seemed to create confusion on Monday by suggesting that discussions with Democrats might be possible. He later indicated on social media that such talks would occur after the government operations resum.
“I’m open to collaborating with Democrats on their failed healthcare and other policies, but first, they must agree to reopen the government,” he posted on Truth Social.
A source close to the White House acknowledged that if the shutdown lingers, economic pressures could motivate Trump to pursue a deal. Still, the same source pointed out that the public would need to experience the consequences of the shutdown, as any significant disruptions—like shortages in air traffic controllers or delays in military funding—might backfire on Democrats.
