The narrative pushed by the Democratic National Committee about their choice to host the first 2028 Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina is worth questioning. This move isn’t really about increasing racial diversity in early campaigning.
In truth, it seems designed to maintain the status quo and keep power within the party establishment. You know, the folks who backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and might support Kamala Harris in 2028.
It’s a complete overhaul.
South Carolina has turned into a sort of bulwark against Bernie Sanders’ leftist challenges.
Back in 2016, Sanders came close to defeating Clinton during the Iowa caucuses and won the New Hampshire primary. Fast forward four years, and he appeared to be the frontrunner until Biden decisively turned the tables in South Carolina.
It’s true that the Black voters contributing to South Carolina’s diversity are generally more moderate politically.
So, sure, you could argue that the DNC isn’t necessarily trying to shut down support for the more socialist aspects of the party. It’s just trying to elevate Black voices.
Interestingly, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which represents the far left, is predominantly white. A recent survey showed that even the New York City branch is 60% white, despite the city’s overall population being only 34% white.
This demographic divide highlights a rift within the Democratic Party—between its more ideological factions and the elites who remain in power largely due to the backing of Black voters. This situation presents a unique opportunity to rethink American politics.
South Carolina favors establishment Democrats significantly. In fact, nearly 75% of Democratic primary voters chose Clinton over Sanders in 2016, and Biden outperformed Sanders there by a two-to-one margin in 2020.
Candidates like Harris and fellow Californian Gavin Newsom align with this establishment view. Moreover, Harris’ distinctive recognition as a former vice president and her credentials in terms of racial and gender diversity could give her a leg up.
However, it’s unclear if DSA members would ever support Harris or Newsom, and they might just abstain from voting, allowing a Republican to take over after Trump. Still, if the establishment candidates keep losing come November 2028, the party might find itself ready for upheaval.
Will Black voters, who have largely turned away from Sanders-style socialism, feel as content with a DSA-led party as they have with the traditional Democratic establishment?
At the same time, Democrats are grappling with severe issues regarding the Electoral College and the U.S. House of Representatives. Blue states like California are losing residents and businesses, while Republican areas are expanding.
Every decade, Republicans aim to gain seats in the House and electoral votes with each census count. Yet if Democrats can turn southern states back to blue, they could potentially counteract this Republican growth.
Georgia serves as a prime example. The state has thrived under Republican control, with the economic success boosting growth in Atlanta, resulting in more blue suburbs.
Virginia, while not entirely reliable as a Democratic stronghold, is already equally purple. Meanwhile, D.C. retains a special kind of influence as the heart of federal governance, with the Democratic-leaning suburbs sprawling into Virginia, much like Atlanta’s impact on Georgia.
North Carolina also stands as a possible vulnerability within the Republican stronghold in the South.
Despite past support for Democratic nominees who didn’t succeed—like Clinton a decade ago, and Biden and Harris recently—the Democratic establishment seems convinced it has found a strategy to retain control while attempting to reclaim the South from Republicans.
In some ways, DSA might adhere to the party line, considering that elite Democrats often shy away from socialist rhetoric.
While the DNC can offer DSA some of what it desires, the reality is that there’s a fierce competition for control within the Democratic Party, and achieving unity is no simple task.
With new possibilities emerging for Democrats in the South, it seems that the more ideologically dominant factions don’t quite have what it takes to capitalize on them.
This situation opens the door for Republicans to counter the Democratic Party’s blend of socialism and issues surrounding race dynamics.
For that to happen, however, Republicans will need to treat the South as a battleground, aiming to slow down the leftward shift seen in American cities, even if they can’t reverse it overnight.
They need to win the South and the Rust Belt, which contributed to their victories in 2016 and 2020.
If the Republican Party fails to engage effectively in urban landscapes, even within prosperous red states, it runs the risk of fading away.
