House Democrats, already buoyed by the momentum of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential nominee, are increasingly optimistic that a growing number of abortion referendums across the country this election cycle can help them win the House and the presidential election in November.
The secretaries of state in Arizona and Missouri this week approved two ballot measures supporting abortion rights, bringing the total number of referendums on the issue to eight this term. Kaiser Family FoundationSeveral other efforts are underway across the country.
Women’s reproductive rights played a key role in the 2022 midterm elections. Anger over the Supreme Court’s decision invalidating Roe v. Wade drove Democrats to the ballot box in large numbers, delivering a better-than-expected result for the party. Democratic enthusiasm blunted a widely expected Republican “red wave,” giving Republicans only a slim majority in the House of Representatives.
With less than three months until Election Day, House Democrats are hoping that the growing number of pro-abortion measures on the ballot, along with Harris’ status as a likely presidential candidate, will motivate voters and lead to wins for the party on both the top and bottom lines.
“When abortion rights are on the ballot, people vote to protect their rights and Democrats win,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told The Hill in an interview. “That’s been true throughout this election cycle, and with each successive special election, turnout increases when abortion is on the ballot.”
“We want to enact legislation to protect reproductive freedom. That is our number one priority,” she later added. “We intend to make that clear to voters across the country, and so will Vice President Harris.”
Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nevada), whose state will have an abortion bill on the ballot this election cycle, said women’s reproductive rights have emerged as an even more important issue than in the last election, as former President Trump is again on the ballot. Republican lawmakers across the country have attacked abortion rights, and Trump indicated at a press conference last week that he would be open to banning the widely used abortion drug mifepristone, though his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), walked back that stance days later.
“I thought this was just an issue from the last election and it didn’t really matter now, but I think it’s even more important now because we’ve seen the Supreme Court work and we’ve heard some bizarre comments from his running mate and Trump keeps bragging about the people he’s appointed to the Supreme Court and overturning Roe v. Wade,” Titus said. “So it’s more serious now than it was then.”
With the Democratic Party leaning toward abortion rights, Harris, a leading voice on the issue within her administration, has injected new energy into the 2024 presidential race, pushing women’s reproductive rights to the forefront as a more effective communicator than President Biden, who dropped out as a top contender last month.
After Iowa’s six-week abortion ban went into effect in July, the Harris campaign launched “Fight for Reproductive Freedom Week,” holding events in battleground states focused on “everything reproductive rights is at stake in this election.” At a rally that month, the Harris campaign proclaimed that “we’re not playing around” with restoring abortion rights at the federal level.
The DCCC has similarly made women’s reproductive rights a major theme in this election. After Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris last month, the campaign organization cited Republican efforts to curb abortion in a memo detailing a path to Democrats regaining the majority. Earlier, in April, the organization released a memo targeting vulnerable Republicans running in states where women’s reproductive rights will be on the ballot in November.
Since then, the number of states holding abortion referendums has grown.
Voters in Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, South Dakota, New York, Maryland and Florida will vote on measures to protect abortion rights in their states in November, while several other key states, including Montana and Nebraska, are in the process of approving ballot petitions.
The growing number of referendums has raised hopes among House Democrats that they will see a surge in voter turnout this election, which they say could energize Democrats already excited about Ms. Harris’ candidacy and galvanize voters who are uninterested in the candidates before them but are committed to protecting women’s reproductive rights.
House Democrats predicted that people who showed up to the polls to support abortion rights would also vote for candidates committed to the cause.
“I believe there will be some voters who are not as influenced by candidates or slates when it comes to deciding whether to vote,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), “But when it comes to government interference in personal health care choices, that motivates some voters to go to the polls, and once they get to the ballot box, as we’ve seen in unexpected election victories across the country, they’re not only voting for reproductive freedom on the issue that’s on the ballot, they’re also voting for candidates who support that position.”
If this increased turnout materializes, it could be key for Democrats in Arizona and Nevada, states that will not only determine the winner of the presidential election, but will play a major role in determining which party gains control of both the House and the Senate.
In Arizona, voters will be asked whether to amend the state constitution to guarantee the right to abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, and in Nevada, the question is whether to recognize a fundamental right to abortion.
Arizona and Nevada have a combined 17 electoral votes and are close in this election, according to the Cook Political Report, but with abortion on the ballot, Democrats from both states say their zeal for women’s reproductive rights could give Harris an advantage.
“This is a major boost for Vice President Harris, who is doing extremely well in Arizona,” said Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz. “You’re going to see Vice President Harris do very well in Arizona.”
Titus similarly said the abortion issue will benefit Democrats for both top and bottom candidates.
“I certainly believe it will make a difference,” she said of how abortion policy will affect Harris’ chances of getting into the White House, adding, “I think it will certainly give an advantage to some of the Democratic candidates here in Nevada because people are concerned that the Republican House has put forward a national abortion ban.”
Of course, this optimism is not unfounded: Five states have abortion bills on the ballot in November 2022, with supporters and opponents. In Michigan, voters easily passed a measure enshrining the right to abortion in the state constitution.
That year, six of the 25 precincts with the highest turnout were in Michigan, with five of them in the top 10. Sabbath’s Crystal BallIt was also a crucial election cycle for Democrats in the state, who achieved their first triple-win since 1985.
Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), a member of the Pro-Choice Caucus, said the initiative “definitely” boosted voter turnout in Michigan that year and predicted the same thing would happen in states where the issue is on the agenda this election.
“At the end of the day, I think this is what voters are going to vote on,” Dingell said of the issue of women’s reproductive rights. “I think this is what’s going to drive people to the polls and vote for candidates who support keeping the government out of women’s health care decisions.”
While hopes are building, some Democrats are urging the party to tread carefully as Election Day approaches.
“We’re optimistic. Let’s never be overconfident. We know we have to fight until the very last day, until the last vote,” Titus said, “but this is definitely another arrow in our quiver.”
This story was first posted at 5:30 a.m.
