Democrats see hope in House, gloom in Senate

Democrats see a clear path to regaining control of the House of Representatives in next fall’s elections, despite growing concerns about losing their hard-fought Senate majority.

Democrats need five seats to regain a majority in the House, and the House map includes more than a dozen seats held by Republicans in California and New York alone.

According to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Democrats already have an advantage in reclaiming districts held by scandal-stricken Rep. He holds five more seats.

California is another chance state for House Democrats, with Republicans holding a competitive seven seats.

But if the House is an opportunity to make Democrats optimistic, the Senate is a source of anxiety for Democrats.

Republicans will hold 11 Senate seats next year, while Democrats will hold 23.

Three of the seats held by Democrats are in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, states where former President Trump easily defeated President Biden in the 2020 election. Biden and Trump are seen as the front-runners for president of both parties next year.

Cook holds Democratic seats in Ohio and West Virginia, along with Arizona, where Senator Kirsten Cinema, who normally votes Democratic, went politically independent last year. Cook rates the remaining five Democratic Senate seats as competitive.

Former Cinema Co. aide John Labombard said of the 2024 Senate map, “I don’t think it’s unfair to say it’s absolutely brutal for the National Democrats, as it always is in this cycle.” .

“At the moment it looks like we are going to be competing in both houses, but there are a lot of things that we have no control over, especially the Senate map. Red states and battleground states, which will be difficult to overcome. ”

On the House side, things look pretty optimistic.

Only five Democrats are running in districts where Trump wins, while 18 Republicans are running in districts where Biden wins. Among them are Mr. Santos and his colleagues Nick LaRota, Rep. Anthony Desposito, Rep. Mike Lawler, and Rep. Brandon Williams, both first-term Republicans from New York.

California also plays a pivotal role in helping Republicans defend congressional districts held by Republicans John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steele. become.

“For those House seats, New York State alone has a good chance of regaining a majority. [representatives] There are currently no seats that must be won to obtain a majority. …in the end it just comes down to a mathematical equation,” said a Democratic aide to the House, who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity.

The Democrats also believe that as a minority party they can make a compelling case for voters.

“On the House side, you’ll find the individual camps laying out their claims like the Senate. If so, it’s credible to say, “We can be the movement to make Hakeem Jeffries the next president,” and that’s a very compelling argument. Make it,” the aide explained.

Jeffries is a minority leader in the House and would likely become the first black speaker if Democrats win the House.

If Democrats win the Senate, they will almost certainly need Mr. Biden to win the presidential election, and he could only lose one seat. This assumes that Democrats cannot take over Republican-held seats in the Senate. A possibility, but a difficult task given next year’s map.

This means that incumbent Senators Jon Tester (Montana), Senator Joe Manchin (West Virginia), and Sen. Means we need a legislator (Ohio).

The party also wants to keep Arizona, where cinema is a wild card.

Assuming Cinema runs for re-election, it could be a three-way race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) and the Republican nominee.

Even if Democrats lose one of those four seats, they could still retain the majority if they beat the White House.

Mr. Tester and Mr. Brown will give the party a strong incumbent who has proven to be re-elected in tough times.

Manchin faces a particularly tough re-election run in Trump’s most popular states, but said he would decide later this year whether to run for re-election. Cinema has yet to reveal whether it will run again, but The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that she was prepared to do so.

Democrats publicly say they are confident.

“Democrats will retain the majority in the Senate, thanks to the power of a seasoned candidate backed by a broad and unique coalition of voters in each state,” Tommy Garcia, spokesman for the Senate Democratic Campaign Division, said in a statement. Let’s go,” he said. “Meanwhile, Republicans are hobbled by recruiting failures, rogue primaries, and flawed candidates who must answer to the party’s toxic policies on issues such as abortion.”

But privately, Democrats admit that it will be difficult to keep the Senate.

“The Senate map is tough. There are a lot of swingers who actually have to fight for reelection. Mr. Tester is a really tough defender,” said one Democratic operative.

John Reinisch, a former aide to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, said the Democratic Senate bill would also depend on what Mr. Manchin decides to do and who will be his opponent. suggested.

“Everybody is waiting to see if Mr. Manchin runs again and of course what happens in the Republican primary in West Virginia. seems to indicate that [Rep. Alex] Mooney is really on the far right [it] it will be very hard to beat [Gov. Jim] Justice is very popular,” Reinisch said.

In the House and Senate races, Democrats hope they can cheer up voters by pointing out abortion rights.

He believes the issue will help the party retain a majority in the Senate in 2022, and that while Republicans won the House, backlash over the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade limited Democrats’ losses. ing.

Student loans are another issue that could affect the Democratic vote. Even Republicans think the recent Supreme Court ruling rejecting Mr. Biden’s student-loan plans could make voters outraged by the decision.

Some Republicans also see a steep uphill road ahead to keep the House in place. Republican strategist Lina Shah suggested party members were too immersed in the culture war to focus on the essential issues. Fighting within the House Republicans has not helped, she explained.

“I think it left voters with the impression, ‘Who are the adults here?’ Why aren’t certain things done?” Shah said.

Other Republican lawmakers have also expressed confidence.

Rep. Richard Hudson, RN.C., chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the election campaign arm of the House Republican Party, said: told the Associated Press on Wednesday: “I think we can actually win seats in California.”

“Codifying criminals, fueling inflation with reckless government spending, demanding open borders, [exacerbate] The fentanyl crisis, that’s extreme Democratic party platform,” NRCC spokesman Will Reinert told The Hill in a statement. “No one in their right mind thinks this agenda will help the country, which is why Republicans will gain a majority in the House next fall.”